SETH BORENSTEIN
WASHINGTON — Associated Press Published on Tuesday, Feb. 27, 2007 10:12PM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 10:10PM EDT
Forecasters warned Tuesday that a La Niña weather pattern — the nasty flip side of El Niño — is brewing, bringing with it the threat of more hurricanes for the Atlantic.
Officials at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration announced the official end of a brief and mild El Niño that started last year. That El Niño was credited with partially shutting down last summer's Atlantic hurricane activity in the midst of what was supposed to be a busy season.
"We're seeing a shift to the La Niña, it's clearly in the data," NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher said. La Niña, a cooling of the mid-Pacific equatorial region, has not officially begun because it's a process with several months with specific temperature thresholds, but the trend is obvious based on satellite and ocean measurement data, he said.
"It certainly won't be welcome news for those living off the coast right now," Mr. Lautenbacher said. But he said that doesn't mean Atlantic seaboard residents should sell their homes.
Forecasters don't know how strong this La Niña will be. However, it typically means more hurricanes in the Atlantic, fewer in the Pacific, less rain and more heat for the already drought-stricken South, and a milder spring and summer in the north, Mr. Lautenbacher said. The central plains of the United States tend be drier in the fall during La Niñas, while the Pacific Northwest tends to be wetter in the late fall and early winter.
Of special concern is west Texas which is already in a long-term drought, which during a La Niña will likely get worse, Mr. Lautenbacher said.
La Niñas tend to develop from March to June and reach peak intensity at the end of the year and into the next February, according to Vernon Kousky, NOAA's top El Niño/La Niña expert. La Niña winters tend to be warmer than normal in the Southeast and colder than normal in the Northwest.
The last lengthy La Niña, from 1998 to 2001, helped cause a serious drought in much of the West, according to NOAA drought specialist Douglas Lecomte.
"There are winners and losers, people tend to concentrate on the losers," Mr. Lautenbacher said.
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