SUZANNE MA
Globe and Mail Update Published on Tuesday, Jul. 18, 2006 2:51PM EDT Last updated on Tuesday, Apr. 07, 2009 12:32AM EDT
Researchers at the Earth Institute at Columbia University have developed a map that projects where people will be living in the year 2025.
The map forecasts population changes worldwide, with significantly fewer people living in parts of Eastern Europe and Japan but considerable gains elsewhere. Overall, already densely populated developing countries are expected to grow, while populations in developed countries will decrease.
In addition, the number of people living within 97 kilometres (60 miles) of a coastline is expected to increase by 35 per cent compared to 1995 population levels. That means 2.75 billion people worldwide will be exposed to the effects of rising sea levels and other coastal threats posed by global warming.
Some areas where populations have been growing were projected to be declining by 2025, including sub-Saharan Africa, Central and South America, the Philippines, Nepal, Turkey, Cambodia, Burma and Indonesia.
"We took national numbers and applied them on a sub-national level," said Dr. Stuart Gaffin, lead scientist on the project. "So instead of just looking at how many people will live in Spain [for example], we looked at how the population was going to be distributed within Spain."
The map was created by extrapolating to 2025 population changes that occurred between 1990 and 1995.
The project, titled Mapping the Future , is the result of collaboration between the Center for Climate Systems Research at the Earth Institute, Hunter College in The City University of New York, and Population Action International, an advocacy group focusing on family planning and health services for women.
Researchers say they hope the map will play a central role in improving environmental policies and reducing the risk of natural disasters in vulnerable parts of the world.
Dr. Gaffin said the map can be used for "an enormous array of applications", including playing a central role in improving environmental policies, and reducing the risk of natural disasters in vulnerable parts of the world.
The map can be found on line at http://www.ccsr.columbia.edu/population/map.
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