A member of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces stands guard at a security point on Bashiqa mountain, overlooking Islamic State held territories of Mosul, 12 km northeast of Mosul City, March 7, 2015.Asmaa Waguih/Reuters
Glimpsed through a gap between sandbags on the front line at Bashiqa Mountain, the city of Mosul glimmers in the sun like a mirage.
Even from 12 kilometres away, Iraq's second-largest city is imposingly big, its dust-coloured urban sprawl stretching on and on, eventually giving way to a belt of lush green farmland. Hidden in these fields, say the Kurdish peshmerga forces on this front line, are mines and TNT, part of a maze of murderous defences put in place by Islamic State militants who seized the city of 2.5 million in June, 2014, and have held it since with a force up to 30,000 strong.
Between the deadly plains and the trench dug by the peshmerga fighters, a black Islamic State flag flutters in a cool spring breeze.
"See that? They have a position there, and they know we are here," said General Bahram Yasin, the 42-year-old peshmerga who oversees the 7th Brigade Base at Bashiqa.
Along a 1,000-kilometre stretch manned by the peshmerga and their international backers, the forward-most position at Bashiqa is among the closest to Mosul, Islamic State's self-styled capital in Iraq. Here, mortars whump overhead and snipers fire from hiding places in the hillside below. The odd Katyusha rocket is launched from farther down the hill, and, in the faraway haze, coalition air strikes on Mosul appear as puffs of grey-white smoke.
From this distance, the city looks impenetrable and the strikes on it so small as to be inconsequential. But Gen. Bahram and his men believe that their enemy, while still a serious threat, is beginning feel the pressure. "Just two months ago, they were sniping us daily and shelling us with 20, 30, even 40 mortars. Now, it has reduced," he said.
It has also diversified: Increasingly, the mortars that IS is firing aren't really mortars at all. Behind an earthen berm near the base, a display of homemade weapons speaks to dwindling supplies and desperation. Water pipes, building materials and even a paper-towel roll have been stuffed with explosives and shot this way.
This apparent weakening comes in the face of significant, expensive efforts to strengthen the peshmerga. The 3,200 men of the 7th Brigade have received MILAN anti-tank guided missiles, heavy machine guns and 800 small arms from the anti-IS coalition. They also get training and tactical support from German and Canadian special forces, teaching them to use a global positioning system, track their enemy's movement and launch raids.
Iraqi forces have begun to chip away at the southern edges of IS-held territory, but no ground has been gained along this line in about a year.
And holding the line may no longer be enough. A growing number of people who have fled Mosul have begun to appear on the side of Bashiqa Mountain, and their harrowing descriptions of life inside the city paint a picture of a place descending into horror.
Some have described how IS militants are relocating their own operations to civilian areas so as to use people as human shields, laying mines and improvised explosive devices and digging in for a fierce, bloody battle.
They are also known to track and torture the extended family members of people who have escaped, whether for information or to punish by proxy the ones who fled.
Escapes are typically arranged by relatives living outside IS-controlled areas who work with people smugglers inside. Once the route is identified, the organizers tell the Asayish, the Kurdish intelligence agency, which warns nearby peshmerga to be prepared to help with a rescue.
As a family of six recently walked across the front, an IS sniper shot the father in the leg just 200 metres from the peshmerga line. His wife scooped up the children, and a man from 7th Brigade sprinted into the open to pull the wounded man to safety.
"They just bring their kids. They leave their houses, cars, all of their things, just to escape with their souls," Gen. Bahram said.
The process is fraught with danger, but the men who have helped people escape describe a rush of elation once the rescue is done. "Those are the best days," said Iqbal Mubarak, a 55-year-old peshmerga with a 42-year-old Kalashnikov in his grip.
Even once people reach safety, their ordeal is not complete: Both the peshmerga and then the Asayish debrief them to gather intelligence and confirm that they are who they say they are. "We have to be careful that people are genuinely fleeing and are not secretly with Da'esh," Gen. Bahram said, referring to Islamic State by its Arabic acronym.
His comment speaks to a long-simmering, deepening distrust between many Kurds and Arabs in this region.
There is a sense among Arabs that the Kurds are biding their time before declaring their own state, and fighting for that – not Iraq. Many Kurds say they believe that most Arabs are IS sympathizers.
In the past week, attempts to retake the cities of Fallujah and Raqqa from IS have been launched, but coalition officials say the actual operation to retake Mosul has not yet begun.
"We've deliberately never announced a timeline. We are eager to liberate Mosul, but it's going to take time to generate the combat power needed," said Colonel Steve Warren of the U.S. Army, a spokesman for the anti-IS coalition. That combat power probably includes 10 brigades of 1,800 to 2,000 men each.
Col. Warren said two of the coalition's 10 brigades would be top peshmerga, who would be trained and equipped for the sort of urban warfare they have not historically done. But those brigades are not even close to being ready, he said. "They are still being stood up."
Beyond military readiness, there is a large-scale humanitarian operation to plan for the estimated 1.8 million civilians still inside Mosul.
"We have a range of contingency plans because we don't know what will happen militarily. Our worst-case scenario plan anticipates up to a million people may be forced to flee their homes, with a further 800,000 not displaced, but in terrible need," said Lise Grande, the United Nations' Humanitarian co-ordinator in Iraq.
A lot depends on the speed of the operation, which Col. Warren stressed will be led by the Iraqi military and not its international backers.