As rebel forces carried their wounded back from a failed assault on the oil town of Brega amid rocket explosions and NATO helicopter fire here in eastern Libya on Friday, a more quiet battle, one with potentially larger consequences, was taking place much farther down the Mediterranean coast in the closed meeting rooms of Istanbul.
There, ministers from 30 countries, including Canada, met to offer official recognition and support to the rebel forces fighting dictator Moammar Gadhafi, but also to confront, in private, the far more serious and divisive problem that has emerged from the rebel heartland here in eastern Libya.
Five months after a protest movement to oust Colonel Gadhafi in February turned into an all-out war with military support from NATO, nobody has a clear idea how the war might be brought to an end – and few nations place much trust in the Libyan actors who are promising to end it.
After Friday’s failed assault and a similar reversal in the western Nafusa mountains, diplomats and military leaders from several NATO countries said they now have serious doubts about whether the ill-trained and disorganized rebel factions are capable of winning the war. This was a key reason, they said, for Europe’s attempt this week at surrender negotiations with Col. Gadhafi: It now seems much easier to bring about a collapse from within. But as worrisome is the prospect of a drawn-out war, officials are equally worried about the prospect of a sudden rebel victory, and its uncertain aftermath.
Either way, the path that leads to Col. Gadhafi’s defeat, and the events that occur afterward, have become subjects of grave interest. The sole concern is now the Libyan endgame.
The Benghazi problem
Officially, Libya’s rebels are based here in Benghazi, under the umbrella of the National Transitional Council, which is now recognized by Canada and more than 30 other countries as “the legitimate governing authority in Libya.” Given that it was created on the fly by a group of university-educated Libyans, lawyers, activists and Gadhafi regime defectors, it is surprisingly professionally run and accountable.
But the problem is that it is only barely in control of the war; it clearly does not represent the full expanse of Libyan opposition; and it is very unlikely to remain a major political body after the war.
Some of the fighting forces, which began as private militias to support eastern businesses, act as political forces unto themselves. Until last month, the largest of the eastern militias, the 17th February Martyrs Brigade, was opposed to the NTC and some other militias; its loyalists had engaged in gun battles with other militias. The brigade’s leader, the well-connected imam, Ismail Al-Sallabi, has hinted that he and his family have political ambitions as Islamist politicians in a post-Gadhafi Libya; they are among several such figures who will overshadow the NTC and its leaders.
Unity, such as it is, appears limited to eliminating Col. Gadhafi. In June, the NTC held a three-way meeting with the eastern brigades, the western fighters and the people claiming to represent the Tripoli resistance, and officially brought them under the same roof. But the western brigades still haven’t joined the Union of the Revolutionary Forces, the central command of the private militias. There are ongoing political and strategic feuds, though Military Council leaders refused to discuss them in detail.
“There is a degree of logistical and practical co-operation between Benghazi and the western fighters in terms of supply and logistical support, but it is very difficult to get a sense of the degree of political co-operation,” said Henry Smith, a Libya-based analyst with the consulting group Control Risks.
Indeed, even the NTC seems barely united internally. That was evident recently when Mahmoud Jibril, the council’s executive chief, announced that the NTC would welcome a peace settlement with Col. Gadhafi; he was then contradicted by NTC spokesman Abdel-Hafidh Ghoga, who said that Col. Gadhafi would only be defeated militarily, and successfully pressed him to strike those remarks from the record. Several such schisms have occurred.
