The Globe and Mail

It takes about five minutes to fly the 85 kilometres from Damascus to Beirut, but it took Syrian President Bashar al-Assad five years to make the flight – five years plus the guiding hand of Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah on whose plane the two leaders flew Friday for a historic lunch with the leaders of Lebanon.

The two men went to signal they were united in wanting Lebanon to remain stable and to resist those who might want to resume the kind of civil war for which Lebanon once was synonymous.

It was the first time a Saudi monarch had visited Lebanon since 1957, and the first time Mr. al-Assad has been in Beirut since the assassination of former Lebanese prime minister Rafik Hariri, a murder he was initially accused of having ordered.

The international furor over that killing forced Syria to withdraw the forces it had maintained in Lebanon since 1990 when they were used to help secure an end to Lebanon’s 15-year civil war.

Saudi Arabia and Syria, the power brokers behind Prime Minister Saad Hariri and Hezbollah Leader Hassan Nasrallah respectively, are concerned over what may happen when the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon investigating the Hariri assassination brings down indictments.

If the tribunal, headed by Canadian chief prosecutor Daniel Bellemare, points the finger at militant Shia movement Hezbollah, as expected, some fear Lebanon could be plunged back into the kind of deadly chaos that gripped the country between 2006 and 2008, when Hezbollah fighters took to the streets demanding a greater share of political power.

Last week Sheikh Nasrallah revealed his belief that the UN tribunal was poised to indict members of his party. He made it clear he would not accept such a finding and accused the tribunal of being part of an Israeli plot.

“If Hezbollah reacts aggressively to any indictment, it will destabilize the country and spill over into the region,” says Karim Makdisi, a professor of political science at the American University of Beirut.

Friday’s luncheon summit was “intended to signal to Hezbollah that it will be in its own best interest not to over-react,” he said.

“Hezbollah needs to remember how bad the situation was in Lebanon from 2004 to 2008,” Prof. Makdisi said. “It has nothing to gain by dragging the country back to that.”

“If Israel couldn’t eliminate it militarily, if the U.S. couldn’t oust it politically and if March 14 [Lebanon’s anti-Hezbollah coalition led by Saad Hariri] couldn’t defeat it internally, Hezbollah isn’t going away. It’s part of the political fabric,” he said.

Interestingly, the Emir of Qatar, who, like Mr. al-Assad, is close to Iran, arrived in the Lebanese capital Friday, just after the Saudi plane departed. He is visiting for a couple days and will travel to the Shia south of the country. It is unclear if he will deliver a message to encourage defiance by Hezbollah.

Originally struck as a means of liberating Lebanon from the clutches of political gangsters, the Special Tribunal for Lebanon has been something of a disappointment.

“It’s been a disaster, as far as most Lebanese are concerned,” said Prof. Makdisi. “It’s viewed here as completely politicized.”

But how could that be, with a Canadian running the show?

“These days, having a Canadian in charge is no guarantee of impartiality,” said Prof. Makdisi. “We know where Canada stands when it comes to the Middle East. People see this tribunal as strictly an American-Israeli exercise.”

Citing leaks from the tribunal, Israeli TV reported Thursday that Mustafa Badr al-Din, the brother-in-law of Imad Mughniyeh, the Hezbollah commander believed to have been assassinated by Israel two years ago, was responsible for the Hariri killing.

Allegations that Hezbollah was involved in Mr. Hariri's assassination first appeared in a 2009 article in the German news magazine Der Spiegel. It reported that investigators had found a link between cell phones used in the area of the attack and other phones belonging to Hezbollah’s “operative arm.”

Hezbollah and its allies repeatedly have criticized what they say is the politicization of the tribunal, arguing that the inquiry has been weakened by the use of information based on Israeli-compromised communications systems.

Last Thursday, Sheikh Nasrallah attacked the tribunal for not considering the possibility that Israel ordered the hit.

“In as much as it failed to take this hypothesis into consideration, then the [tribunal] cannot be considered unprejudiced,” the Hezbollah leader said.

Might Saad Hariri, whose father was killed in the 2005 attack, also react strongly to any indictment?

“It’s taken a number of years for him to appreciate the difference between Hariri the son, and Hariri the Prime Minister – someone who is responsible for social stability in an unstable country,” said Prof. Makdisi.

“A lot of people in his movement definitely want to get revenge on Hezbollah,” he added. “But Saad has to resist that tendency. With Saudi Arabia in his corner, he should be able to ride it out.”

“The future of Lebanon is at stake.”