If all goes according to plan, Robert Mugabe could be entering his final months as the most powerful man in Zimbabwe.
That’s the road map that his political rivals have drafted. Riding high in the opinion polls, his opponents believe they have persuaded Mr. Mugabe to step down from power after an election next year.
The 86-year-old President, who has ruled Zimbabwe with an iron fist for the past 30 years, has publicly agreed that the election should be held in 2011. If the election is free and fair, the polls say that Mr. Mugabe is heading for defeat at the hands of his long-time opponents, the Movement for Democratic Change, headed by political reformer Morgan Tsvangirai
Mr. Tsvangirai is now the Prime Minister in a fractious coalition government in which Mr. Mugabe still holds most of the trump cards. At a business conference in Johannesburg on Monday, the Prime Minister seemed calm and confident as he assured investors that Mr. Mugabe has agreed to a peaceful election next year.
“He is committed to a peaceful Zimbabwe,” Mr. Tsvangirai said. “Do we have a mechanism to guarantee that if another party wins, there will be a transfer of power? Yes, there’s going to be that. There’s no other option, outside of the process and the road map that has already been designed.”
But after a bloody election in 2008 that left hundreds of people dead and thousands homeless, many analysts are skeptical that the next election will be as smooth or peaceful as Mr. Tsvangirai predicts. His road map faces a series of potholes and speed bumps that could prove fatal to his hopes of winning power next year.
Before the next election can be held, Zimbabwe must draft a new constitution and submit it to a referendum. The constitutional process is far behind schedule, and Mr. Tsvangirai acknowledged that the referendum cannot be held until next May or June. This would leave little time for a national election next year.
Another key problem is the high cost of the election and the referendum, which Mr. Mugabe estimates at about $200-million (U.S.). He has ordered the government to find the money in its budget, but the government is cash-strapped and cannot afford even a fraction of the cost. In reality, Western governments would be expected to pay the full cost of the election, diplomats say.
Meanwhile, there are worrying signs of violence lingering in Zimbabwe’s political system. Politicians and civil society groups have complained that Mr. Mugabe’s supporters attacked and beat people in a local by-election campaign and in the constitutional hearings this year. Zimbabwe’s military and security forces, along with unofficial militias of young thugs, are still loyal to Mr. Mugabe, and they could sabotage any future election if they think that Mr. Mugabe could lose – as they did in 2008.
In its 18 months in office, the coalition government has made progress on several fronts – improving media freedom, stabilizing the economy and restoring schools and hospitals – but most of its reforms have been blocked by Mr. Mugabe’s allies.
In an interview with The Globe and Mail and other journalists Thursday, Mr. Tsvangirai acknowledged that there are still “instances of violence” by Mr. Mugabe’s supporters this year. “There’s been some violence, some disruption. There will always be residual resistance by individuals because they lose power and they’re afraid of being prosecuted.”
In his speech to the investors, he confirmed that he is in discussions with Zimbabwe’s military and security forces to try to neutralize them in future elections. “They need to be taken on board and reassured about the future,” he said.
As part of this process of reassuring Mr. Mugabe’s supporters, Mr. Tsvangirai is insisting that his party must have no “retributive agenda” against the Mugabe loyalists if it wins power – despite the violence that his party suffered in 2008 and earlier. “What we need, as we move forward, is a balance between the cries of the victims and the fears of the perpetrators,” he said. “If you’re going to build stability, you need both. You need to set a standard that everyone is reassured, that there is no retribution.”
Many members of Mr. Tsvangirai’s party are disappointed in the slow progress of reforms. The Prime Minister said he shares those frustrations, but he argued that the pace of change is realistic, compared with the “madness” of the previous decade under the Mugabe regime.
