When Mitt Romney was asked to say something nice about one of his rivals during a recent debate here, the most unloved top contender for the Republican presidential nomination immediately professed his envy of Ron Paul.
“What amazes me is when I come to a debate like this, the only signs I see are the Ron Paul people out there,” an awestruck, and slightly jealous, Mr. Romney said. “He ignites an enthusiasm with a number of people. That’s very exciting to watch.”
Mr. Paul, the libertarian outlier of the race, has a small but extremely devoted base of supporters in every part of the country. But in Iowa, whose crucial caucuses on Jan. 3 kick off the primary season, the Texas congressman has become so popular that an upset Paul win has become a serious possibility.
All but one of six recent polls show Mr. Paul solidly in second place in Iowa or statistically tied with Newt Gingrich for the lead. But while Mr. Gingrich has barely visited Iowa and only just opened a campaign office here, Mr. Paul has a secret weapon.
At 76, the oldest candidate for the GOP nomination is clearly the coolest among the youngest cohort of Iowa voters. They have formed the biggest army of volunteers for any candidate since Barack Obama won the Iowa Democratic caucuses in 2008.
Indeed, if Mr. Paul wins Iowa or comes close enough to sap Mr. Gingrich’s post-Iowa momentum, the credit will go to the young people who have flocked to his antiwar, antigovernment and anti-central bank message. His call to legalize drugs resonates, too.
Their volunteer work is buttressed by at least 500 college students from around the country who have descended on Iowa for the holidays to campaign for Mr. Paul. A similar number of college-aged volunteers are doing the same for him in New Hampshire.
“This is a generation that wants a third party so badly, that the fact that Ron Paul has taken positions that put him outside the Republican mainstream is really appreciated,” notes Rachel Caufield, director of the Iowa Caucus Project at Drake University in Des Moines. “I have students coming into my office telling me why we need to reform the Federal Reserve. That has never happened before.”
Many of the most ardent Paul supporters were not old enough to vote in 2008. For most of them, Mr. Paul’s candidacy has been the revelation of their political coming of age in much the way Mr. Obama captivated first-time voters in 2008.
“It’s his civil liberties stance and his consistency,” explains Ben Levine, 19, a Minnesota native studying politics and history at Drake. “He’s been on the lonely end of countless 434-to-1 votes in Congress because he votes on principle.”
Mr. Paul’s strong opposition to the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and his calls for a non-interventionist foreign policy strike a chord with young voters who have grown up watching U.S. missions abroad go awry. And they warm to his fierce criticism of the anti-terrorism Patriot Act and its curtailment of civil liberties.
But reaching political maturity during an economic crisis has also made young Iowans receptive to Mr. Paul’s promise to radically slash federal spending by $1-trillion, or about one-third, during his first year in office.
“You don’t have a fiscal responsibility crisis in Europe; you have a debt crisis,” Mr. Levine says. “Big government is the one thing people don’t like right now.”
An online poll of Drake students this week drew 1,200 participants among the university’s 3,200 undergraduates. Fully 35 per cent supported Mr. Paul for the GOP nomination. Mr. Romney drew 25 per cent support; Newt Gingrich got 10 per cent.
On Monday, the University of Iowa student newspaper endorsed Mr. Paul, noting: “He doesn’t play political games – even with his opponents – and remains truthful to his word. This alone is a redeeming quality in today’s political sphere.”
Mr. Paul’s appeal in Iowa is not limited to young people. Though his libertarian positions on morality might alienate some social conservatives in a state where evangelical Christians loom large, Mr. Paul has been able to finesse the matter by calling for issues such as abortion and same-sex marriage to be settled at the state level.
He has also mounted a ferocious anti-Gingrich campaign in the state, notably with a much-talked-about ad decrying the former Speaker’s “serial hypocrisy.” It appears to be working, as signs mount that Mr. Gingrich’s support here has peaked.
A victory or close second-place finish by Mr. Paul in Iowa might not lead to a breakthrough for him elsewhere, where he has so far failed to muster double-digit support. But it would undermine Mr. Gingrich’s ability to claim he has the momentum going into the Jan. 10 primary in New Hampshire, where Mr. Romney is favoured.
As Mr. Levine puts it: “Ron Paul represents Newt Gingrich’s worst nightmare and Mitt Romney’s best friend.”
