News

In one of the most polluted cities in Russia, where life spans are short even by Russian standards and the taps gush bright orange water, factory worker Alexander Popov explains why he loves President Vladimir Putin.

Since 2000, when Mr. Putin took office, Mr. Popov's salary has grown tenfold. Along the way, he has collected a stainless steel fridge, new kitchen cabinets, a flat-screen television, DVD player and a computer for his 15-year-old son.

Unlike a decade ago, Mr. Popov knows for certain he will be paid next week.

"During the 1990s, I didn't get paid for six months," Mr. Popov, 41, said. "My wife's parents supported us. We had to grow our own food in the summer to survive the winter."

After 20 years as a mechanic in a plastics factory, Mr. Popov and his seamstress wife say they are finally living a middle-class life.

On Sunday, they intend to vote for the party they believe delivered them their relative prosperity: Russia's mighty United Russia party, led by Mr. Putin's hand-picked successor, Dmitry Medvedev, who is expected to win in a landslide.

Mr. Medvedev will cruise to victory not just because Mr. Putin told Russians to support him, but because of the real life "prosperity" stories of voters such as the Popovs.

But those stories form part of a powerful myth, expertly stoked for nearly a decade by the Kremlin and Mr. Putin. According to this narrative, Mr. Putin's steady but firm rule - including a crackdown on opposition parties, non-governmental organizations and broadcast media, as well as a ban on gubernatorial elections - helped rescue Russia from the brink of economic collapse and restore its reputation as a player in the international arena.

Part of the story is true. Many average Russians now live better than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, and people such as the Popovs of Dzerzhinsk are among its shining examples.

But critics say that Mr. Putin's iron-fisted reign had little to do with Russia's economic recovery and might even doom its chances for long-term prosperity.

"The notion that autocrats are better at stability, in the long course of history, it's just not true," said Michael McFaul, a political scientist at Stanford University. "They collapse, they have problems. They don't deal well with crisis. Autocracies just don't last as long as democracies."

Prof. McFaul, argues that Russia's democratic backsliding has actually hindered its economic recovery.

While Russia can claim that wages have risen, its economy is expanding and poverty rates have been cut, there have been real setbacks in health care, public safety and corruption.

The state has undergone a massive expansion under Mr. Putin, with the number of state employees doubling to 1.5 million, Prof. McFaul said. The murder rate has increased and alcoholism and mortality rates remain high. Public health spending, meanwhile, has not increased in the past decade.

He also argued that Russia was well on the road to economic recovery as early as 1998, after the crashing ruble forced federal officials to control government spending and reduce the state's role in the economy.

But since then, its growth rate has stalled; in 2000, Russia's economy was the second fastest growing among former Soviet countries. Today, it is 13th, Prof. McFaul noted in an article he co-authored in Foreign Affairs, an international relations journal.

While there is no way to know how Russia's economy would have performed had Mr. Putin's eight-year rule been less restrictive, he argued that open societies as a rule provide healthier business climates in the long term.

"What's the best way to fight corruption? Independent media, opposition parties, elections," he said in a telephone interview. "Who is the most motivated person to expose corruption in the status quo government? It's the person who wants to be elected in that person's place, right? Those are the ones most likely to talk about corrupt policy."

Critics also argue that Russia's retreat from democratic practices has had the effect of depoliticizing and placating the electorate, leaving them less inclined to rail against social and economic inequities.

Today, the majority of Russians believe the Putin storyline that he rescued the country from economic chaos, said pollster Boris Dubin, a message daily delivered on state-owned television.

"It was done on purpose, so that people won't demand change," said Mr. Dubin, director of the Levada Center, an independent polling company.

In this climate, many Russians believe they are better off because the government has told them they are. And many Russians will choose Mr. Medvedev as their next president simply because Mr. Putin told them to.

They will vote for him, Mr. Dubin said, even though they know deep down that Russia is not the rosy place depicted in United Russia campaign ads.

Yet, they are not prepared to press for change.

"The Russian psyche is still in the Soviet past," Mr. Dubin said.

"They don't want big reforms and changes. They are not success-oriented. They don't mind if economic growth is slower."

In Dzerzhinsk, an industrial city of close to 300,000 about 400 kilometres east of Moscow, few residents want to talk about the orange water spewing from their taps, let alone government transparency, corruption or the state-imposed restrictions on the media. Most are too preoccupied with day-to-day survival.

Dzerzhinsk, named after Felix Dzerzhinsky, founder of the first Soviet secret police force, was the centre of chemical weapon production during the Communist era, churning out, among other things, DDT, mustard gas and a Russian version of Agent Orange. Outsiders weren't permitted to enter the city limits.

It's believed that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of chemical waste were improperly dumped outside the town each year, leaching into toxic reservoirs. Life expectancy is among the lowest in Russia: 47 for women and 42 for men, according to some reports.

However, local officials, including the head of the city's main hospital, down play Dzerzhinsk's ecological problems. In fact, Sergei Shamin, who is also a city politician, said residents are well informed about health issues, and use water filters for the tap water.

Today, the small city still has a grim, Soviet feel. Its buses and trams belch black smoke. The paint is peeling from official buildings and Russian-made cars try to navigate cavernous potholes on downtown streets. The average salary is less than $300 a month.

It seems hard to believe that any resident could describe this city as prosperous, let alone stable.

In reality, many of Dzerzhinsk's factory workers aren't keeping up with the Popovs. Natalia Novoseltseva, 35, is one.

Ms. Novoseltseva, who also works in a plastics factory, earns about $360 a month, mixing chemicals.

She and her seven-year-old son live in a bachelor apartment, which costs $200 a month. Every day, the price of food increases and she has taken out loans to pay her monthly bills.

Ms. Novoseltseva said her life is neither stable nor prosperous, despite long hours at the factory. Neither are the lives of many of her neighbours.

"I see alcoholics everywhere," she said, noting her high-rise is filled with daily vodka drinkers, many of whom are young.

"They're really ill. They don't have any hope in life."

Ms. Novoseltseva's hopes are also fading. "I sleep, work, go home, sleep and start over again. "We're not sure of anything right now. You need to have money for everything."

Even the Popov's relative prosperity is thinly constructed. They have no savings, don't own a car and the only vacations they can afford are to Ms. Popov's parents' nearby cottage.

The family of three live in a small, one-bedroom, apartment high-rise on the outskirts of the industrial city. The parents sleep on a pullout couch in the living room.

Their new appliances were purchased on credit. Mr. Popov, despite his wage increases, still earns about $600 a month and can't afford to pay for big-ticket items with cash.

Yet his life has never been better. He eats for free at the factory, gets free health care and doesn't get alarmed about the strong fumes that permeate the factory. "I get a checkup twice a year."

He believes Mr. Medvedev is the only man who will continue Mr. Putin's course. Why? "He's a very positive man. He's young. All the great leaders of Russia have been young," he said, citing Peter the Great and Mr. Putin.

Most important, he believes Mr. Medvedev won't stray from the course Mr. Putin set for the country, in which Mr. Popov believes he is thriving.

"I know I will be paid next month. I can pay for my fridge. Once I pay for the fridge I can buy something else. When I can buy things, and pay for them, I feel strong."