Hamas's options run thin as attacks persist

ORLY HALPERN

JERUSALEM From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

Hamas has urged Palestinian groups to use "all available means" against Israel, including "martyrdom operations" — meaning suicide bombings. It's threatened that Palestinians will rise up in a third intifada.

And yet three days into Israel's most destructive and deadly campaign against Palestinians since the 1967 war, the Islamist militant group has responded only with continued rocket attacks.

Israeli Defence Minister Ehud Barak says that if the rockets don't stop, "Israel will have recourse to every means and all legal actions at its disposal to see to it that the enemy halts its illegal aggression."

The question is whether Hamas is willing and capable of doing anything else as Israel smashes its arms-smuggling tunnels, destroys its security and administrative compounds, kills its personnel and civilians, and masses troops and tanks at its borders, ready for a ground invasion.

These are among its options:

MORE ROCKET ATTACKS

Despite three days of heavy bombardment from Israel, rockets from Gaza are flying farther into the Jewish state than ever. Three Israelis were killed yesterday — more than any other day since Palestinians began shooting rockets into Israel in 2001, bringing the total killed in Israel since then to 20.

More than 250 mortars and rockets have been fired since Saturday and Hamas is believed to have thousands of short-range weapons and scores of longer-range Grad rockets that can reach Israeli cities 40 kilometres away.

Most of the rockets are homemade, using materials smuggled in through the hundreds of underground tunnels that cross into Egypt. Israel has destroyed numerous arsenals across Gaza and 40 such tunnels, but there are at least 200 more. If Israel destroys them it also destroys Gazans' lifeline for everything from food to diapers to fuel. Without access to basic needs, the responsibility for Gazans' welfare may fall on Israel, making it risky for Israel to destroy the tunnel system completely. Hence, it's not clear that Hamas would ever run out of rockets.

SUICIDE ATTACKS

Hamas's infamy comes from 10 years — 1994 to 2004 — of using suicide bomb attacks to influence Israeli politics or just to take revenge. Some experts say it abandoned suicide attacks to get involved in politics, but now Israel's lethal air strikes on Gaza have prompted Hamas leaders to threaten a return to the tactics of old.

While it would be almost impossible for any Palestinian to escape Gaza, there is probably no lack of volunteer suicide bombers in the West Bank, an easier entry point into Israel. Yesterday, in a fit of anger, a Palestinian construction worker stabbed four people at a Jewish West Bank settlement where he worked. Others might be willing to strap on explosives instead of picking up a knife.

GROUND WARFARE

Despite its show of force along the border, Israel is loath to launch a ground invasion. It has in the past, a decision that always ended in Israeli casualties, as soldiers fought in unfamiliar, densely populated areas such as Gaza City.

Hamas's security forces, believed to number around 38,000, are well trained, highly motivated and well equipped. While street battles would take a greater toll on Palestinian forces, Israel is nonetheless reluctant to be drawn into another war like the one it failed to win against Hezbollah in Lebanon two years ago.

Israeli citizens cannot stomach the death of their sons for long, knowing that Israel has never been able to extinguish a resistance in the past.

PATIENCE, POLITICAL PRESSURE AND POSSIBLE INTIFADA

Hamas is an acronym for Islamic Resistance Movement and also means "zeal" in Arabic. As long as it doesn't revert to suicide bombings, the pressure on Israel by the Arab world and the international community will only rise. Hamas has already called on the Arab world to end its relations with Israel. Neither Egypt nor Jordan are likely to do that, but fear that their citizens might rise up against them will cause the governments of both countries to push for an end to the Israeli campaign.

Moreover, Hamas has declared that the Israeli attacks will spark the third Palestinian intifada, or uprising. Palestinians have demonstrated across the West Bank and in a Arab-Israeli city. Israeli soldiers opened fire, killing one man. Another Israeli was wounded when a rock hit his car. It would be premature to call this another intifada, but the violent demonstrations may continue and spread.

Special to The Globe and Mail

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