Evo Morales, Bolivia's president-elect, is the latest in a long history of Latin American outsiders to come to power. Small groups of elites have traditionally dominated in the region, and leaders representing marginalized sectors have periodically tried to wrest power away from them. The most successful has been Fidel Castro, who has completely transformed Cuban society.
The common wisdom, at least since Mr. Castro came to power in 1959, has been that it is impossible to carry out the kind of often revolutionary change that outsiders demand, and respect democratic institutions at the same time. Mr. Castro has repeatedly made it clear that revolution should always trump democracy.
Other outsiders more committed to democracy have been willing to constrain the potentially revolutionary demands of their constituents. Brazilian President Luiz Inacio (Lula) da Silva is the best current example. Having risen to power as a trade unionist and leader of the Workers' Party, he has stuck to a reformist agenda that strictly respects democratic institutions.
Historically, only one Latin American leader has tried to reconcile revolution with democracy: Chile's Salvador Allende. Elected in 1970, Mr. Allende was the first Marxist leader to come to power through the ballot box, promising a "revolution through democratic means." He represented a wide range of previously marginalized groups, including factory workers, peasants and urban slum dwellers, as well as artists, intellectuals and middle-class professionals. Chile has one of the most unequal socio-economic distributions on the planet, and Mr. Allende's government attempted a radical redistribution of property. Multinational companies were summarily nationalized, and factories and lands expropriated.
Notwithstanding many important achievements, Mr. Allende's program suffered from numerous pitfalls. It prioritized redistribution over sound fiscal management, and the government resorted to printing money to meet financial commitments. Inflation skyrocketed, causing widespread economic and political instability. Mr. Allende was likely committed to a cautious approach to revolution, but he failed to control the more radical sectors in his coalition that favoured taking over as many factories and lands as quickly as possible, regardless of the consequences.
A significant sector of the Chilean population never supported revolution. Like Mr. Morales, Mr. Allende came to power in a direct presidential ballot that did not allow for a runoff election. But, unlike Mr. Morales (who nevertheless obtained more than 50 per cent of the vote), Mr. Allende only polled a plurality of 37 per cent in 1970.
The Cold War was in full swing during the early 1970s, and the United States provided financial, political and logistical assistance to Mr. Allende's enemies, helping to bring about his overthrow by a violent military coup on Sept. 11, 1973.
Since then, the option of democratic revolution has been permanently foreclosed in Latin America. Some recent outsiders - such as Hugo Chávez in Venezuela - have embarked on revolution, but at the expense of democracy. Others, such as Mr. da Silva in Brazil, Ricardo Lagos in Chile, Néstor Kirchner in Argentina or Tabaré Vázquez in Uruguay, are committed to democracy. While they have sometimes tried far-reaching reforms, they fall short of the revolutionary change that Mr. Castro and Mr. Chávez have undertaken, and which Mr. Allende tried.
Mr. Morales has said that he does not want to be compared to Mr. Chávez or Mr. da Silva. He has not indicated to whom he would prefer to be compared, but Mr. Allende comes to mind. True, the world is a different place today than in the 1970s. There is more consensus over financial fundamentals, and the Cold War is long over. The coca-growing and indigenous sectors that Mr. Morales represents form a much greater proportion of Bolivia's population, with uniquely deep historical and cultural roots that have little or no equivalent in Chile.
Yet, Mr. Allende casts a long shadow over Bolivia's president-elect. Most observers have commented on the importance of the first indigenous leader and coca grower to be elected president in Bolivia. But they have ignored the deeper significance of Mr. Morales's election: He is the first leader since Mr. Allende to attempt a potential revolution by democratic means. Whether he can succeed where Mr. Allende failed is an open question.
He has promised to increase national ownership over gas and oil production, write a new constitution to increase indigenous representation, and legalize coca production. The fact that he obtained a clear majority makes his position stronger than Mr. Allende's in 1970. On the other hand, his election has triggered many alarm bells, and no one should underestimate the extent to which the domestic and international opposition against him may work to bring about his downfall.
As Mr. Morales's governing program becomes clearer in the coming months, we will know whether the changes he proposes are consistent with democracy, or whether one or the other may have to be compromised.
Pablo Policzer holds the Canada Research Chair in Latin American Politics at the University of Calgary.
