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What's holding up a ceasefire?

Two things: First, Israel has made it clear it won't cease its operation before Hamas stops firing rockets. Hamas is determined not to be seen to surrender and seeks an agreement that doesn't humiliate it. The joint French/Egyptian proposal calls for simultaneous cessation of fighting, for a limited time, to allow for humanitarian relief. This idea is now being tried out by both parties for a limited time each day. The second holdup involves ending the flow of weapons to Hamas, which have come through tunnels from Egypt and possibly in cartons, dropped by boats offshore. Mideast envoy Tony Blair says: "There will either be a reliable mechanism for preventing smuggling or the operation will continue."

What kind of mechanism would prevent arms smuggling?

Israel, Egypt and the Palestinian Authority of Mahmoud Abbas believe it requires an international monitoring force of some kind stationed along the frontier between Egypt and Gaza. Such a force was called for in a 2005 agreement and, for a time, The European Union monitored the border crossing at Rafah. The arrangement lacked teeth, however, and EU monitors refused to carry out the monitoring in the absence of Palestinian Authority personnel. In June, 2007 the PA staff had, effectively, been replaced by Hamas. Hamas now rejects the idea of an international force. Technically, the parties are discussing several options to prevent the digging of tunnels including a canal that would runs the 15-kilometre length of the border from the Mediterranean, and a wall that would be built deep underground all along the border. (Some of the current tunnels are dug more than 20 metres down.)

 How were the tunnels allowed to proliferate?

The 500 or so tunnels have mostly been dug right under the nose of both Israeli and Egyptian lookout towers. Israel drew attention to them a few years ago. However, it didn't want to bomb the border, nor send troops back into Gaza, having unilaterally withdrawn in 2005. Israel says it hoped Egypt would deal with the tunnels at its end. Egypt has not publicly acknowledged the major role the tunnels have played (it insists the rockets came by boat), and has done only a little to seal them up. It has done nothing to impede the flow of goods passing through Egyptian territory to the tunnels. It is true that, according to its 1979 peace treaty with Israel, Egypt is required to keep its military to a specific minimum in the area of the Sinai desert closest to Israel, and Egypt may have believed it did not have the military might to deal with the tunnels. It also is possible Egypt saw economic benefit allowing the movement of goods to the tunnel, or saw it as a way of providing some relief to the population in Gaza. Israel may have allowed them to proliferate for the same reason.

 Do all the weapons come through the tunnels?

 Most of the rockets are homemade. The Qassam rocket, named for the al-Qassam Brigades, the military wing of Hamas, is a rudimentary missile that is put together in common metal shops. It uses sugar and fertilizer as propellant, and fertilizer and TNT in the warhead. It has no guidance system and is difficult to aim. Hence it is usually aimed at a large target, such as the Israeli town of Sderot. It has a range of about 20 km. The Grad rocket, really a low level form of the Soviet-designed Katyusha rocket, is more sophisticated, accurate and deadly. It has a longer range than the Qassam, reaching targets 40 km away. It is manufactured abroad (probably in China, Israelis say) and must be smuggled into Gaza.

 Does Israel want to destroy Hamas?

Israeli leaders insist that is not the goal of their operation, though they say they'd be happy if the Palestinian people found a way to do away with the organization. Israel insists it will be happy just to see the end of the rockets, and the prevention of a new arms build-up.

 Does Israel want to see the Palestinian Authority back in power in Gaza?

Israeli officials say they do, though they know Mahmoud Abbas would never want to be seen as being restored to power by Israel. Israeli analysts have also noted that unifying Gaza and the West Bank, as they were regarded until 2007, would present a number of issues Israel doesn't have to worry about right now, such as links that would run through Israel. Senior Palestinian officials worry that Israel prefers to see the two entities governed separately so that each would be weak and lack clout in negotiations with Israel. Egypt would not like to see the two remain split. Egypt worries that it might be pushed into taking responsibility for Gaza and its teeming refugee population, something it did from 1948-67, and doesn't want to do again.

 What are Egypt's goals?

Cairo wants Gazans to be prosperous, peaceful and to remain in Gaza. President Hosni Mubarak is worried about the growing political strength of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. If Hamas, an offshoot of the Brotherhood, should emerge victorious in this conflict, it would likely inspire many Egyptians to support the Brotherhood. Similarly, if the border crossing with Gaza should be opened, and the border crossings between Gaza and Israel closed, Egypt worries it will end up too closely linked to the strip and to the Hamas movement. As a result, Egypt wants a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, reconciliation between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, the deployment of PA personnel along its frontier with Gaza, and the deployment of an international force only in a technical and advisory capacity.

 What does Mahmoud Abbas hope to achieve?

The PA president, whose term was supposed to run out Jan. 9, is the only acknowledged elected representative of the Palestinian entities. As such, he is the one who will speak on behalf of Gazans at the United Nations, and the one who would sign any agreement. This will assist Mr. Abbas in having his authority extended from the West Bank to, again, include Gaza. However, he does not want to be installed as head of Gaza by the Israelis. Ideally, he'd like to see international monitors inside Gaza, as well as along its frontier. Such an arrangement, he imagines, would allow for new, monitored elections in Gaza and the West Bank that would re-elect him as president, and elect a legislature he could work with. He is very pleased that the French-Egyptian proposals call for reconciliation talks with Hamas. Until now, Hamas has rejected the idea.

Are politics playing a role in Israel's behaviour?

 Absolutely, but they probably didn't light the fuse of the current conflict. When the six-month informal ceasefire between Hamas and Israel expired, the number of rockets fired from Gaza on Israel increased dramatically. At that point, politics in Israel became a factor. Labour Party leader and defence Minister Ehud Barak was reluctant to launch an assault on Gaza. At a certain point, however, the public clamoured for a response and none of the senior leadership, Mr. Barak, Kadima Party leader and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, and outgoing Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, would have been comfortable going against public opinion. Especially not with an election scheduled for Feb. 10, and with Likud Party leader Benjamin Netanyahu well ahead in the polls. Since the operation was launched, Mr. Barak has benefitted most from a rise in the public opinion polls.

 What happens if a ceasefire can't be agreed on?

 If Hamas runs out of rockets, (or stops firing them, or mostly stops firing them), Israel might well cease fire on its own and withdraw from Gaza, declaring a victory. This would especially be the case if Egypt seriously takes on the task of policing the frontier with Gaza. In the event Israel believes Egypt is not prepared to adequately prevent arms smuggling, Israel is likely to occupy the so-called Philadelphi corridor that runs along Gaza's frontier with Egypt (as provided for in the original Oslo Accords) and to withdraw from the rest of Gaza. In the corridor, Israel would attempt to prevent arms smuggling itself, and it would likely respond with aerial bombardment to any rocket firings from the strip. The people of Gaza would likely continue to be locked up in the strip, without even the tunnels to provide outside goods. Relief would be governed by Israel alone.