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Omar Khadr is almost certain to be returned to Canada now that U.S. President Barack Obama has ordered Guantanamo Bay's prison camps shut down, politicians and experts say.

The Conservative government may also be forced to retreat from its long-held refusal to interfere in the detained Canadian's case, and instead be compelled to formally request he be returned.

Having suspended all cases before the controversial military commissions system in Guantanamo, the Obama administration will likely choose not to pursue a court case against Mr. Khadr and instead focus its energies on prosecuting the alleged co-conspirators behind the attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, said Wesley Wark, a University of Toronto professor and national-security expert.

That would mean the one hurdle that Ottawa has used as its justification for its refusal to ask for Mr. Khadr's return - that there is an ongoing legal process - would be lifted.

Prof. Wark added, however, that the Obama administration will likely want Canada to formally request Mr. Khadr's return, so as to insulate the President from the anger of those who feel the detained Canadian should be punished, including the widow of Sergeant Christopher Speer, the U.S. soldier Mr. Khadr is alleged to have murdered.

"That's a potentially volatile little touch point for the Obama administration," Prof. Wark said. "They don't want to be on the wrong side of history as they proceed."

Such a move, though, would be doubly difficult for the Harper government. Determined not to interfere in Mr. Khadr's case, Ottawa would be forced to do the exact opposite.

Mr. Harper has so far rebuffed calls for Canada to demand Mr. Khadr be repatriated from Guantanamo.

Last July, he said there is no alternative to the military commission for judging whether Mr. Khadr is guilty of a serious crime, "and we believe that this process should continue."

Mr. Harper's communications director, Kory Teneycke, insisted that the government's stand remains unchanged, but he added that it is waiting on Washington's plans. He refused to discuss whether Ottawa has made plans to deal with Mr. Khadr being returned to Canada.

While the government would find it virtually impossible to charge Mr. Khadr in Canada, it has some means of limiting his freedom, such as denying him a passport or issuing a peace bond. Such bonds can be imposed at the Attorney-General's discretion, and could include measures such as counselling, rehabilitation and may even address how much time Mr. Khadr can spend with his family.

Liberal foreign affairs critic Bob Rae said it is "preposterous" that Ottawa is defending the Guantanamo military tribunals even when the United States has stopped them.

"The only guy now in the world who seems to believe in Guantanamo and military tribunals is Stephen Harper," Mr. Rae said.

He noted that both major presidential candidates in the U.S. election promised to close Guantanamo Bay. Mr. Obama's order for a 120-day hiatus to review the military commissions shows it's not just about the detention centre, but still the government appears to have no plan, Mr. Rae said.

"They've been in denial for so long," he said. "It's like a Monty Python sketch: This is a dead tribunal."