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People have lost a lot of money betting against Ehud Olmert.

Mr. Olmert, whose 39 months as Israel's Prime Minister run out today, wasn't ever really expected to be prime minister. He had placed 33rd on the Likud candidates list going into the 2003 election, and he was comfortably ensconced as mayor of Jerusalem, another post he wasn't expected to win.

But he had the support of then-Likud leader Ariel Sharon, who made him vice-prime minister. And when Mr. Sharon suffered a massive brain hemorrhage in January, 2006, it was Mr. Olmert who became acting prime minister. Against all odds, he then led the new Kadima party to victory in elections two months later.

What resulted was one of the most tumultuous administrations in Israel's history. Controversial military conflicts with two Arab neighbours and surprising peace initiatives with two others led public support to soar and dive like one of Israel's jet fighters. Yet, for better or worse, those missions have set the stage for years to come, and for the Benjamin Netanyahu government that takes office today.

Mr. Olmert is being forced, grudgingly, to leave office; the prospect of indictments on several allegations of corruption forced him last year to announce he would resign.

But more than the scandals, more than the political victory of 2006, Mr. Olmert's years in office will be judged by how he confronted Arab populations on four different fronts.

LEBANON

When Hezbollah fighters attacked an Israeli border patrol on July 12, 2006, and abducted two soldiers, Israel had a plan waiting and responded within minutes. A massive aerial bombardment struck at targets throughout Lebanon. Hezbollah returned fire with missiles and a 34-day war ensued.

Despite the ferocity of Israel's attacks and the superiority of its air power, by most accounts Israel's war on Hezbollah was viewed as a failure. Trying to win the war without putting Israeli ground forces at risk did not succeed, it merely delayed invasion.

The negotiated settlement that ended fighting and allowed Israelis to withdraw was greeted as a victory in the Arab world and a humiliation in Israel, and Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah became a popular hero.

In Israel, Mr. Olmert became the popular goat. Public support for the Prime Minister fell to 3 per cent.

"Everyone thought Olmert was finished," said Tamar Hermann, a specialist on public attitudes and conflict resolution at Tel Aviv University.

A commission struck to determine what went wrong found, initially, that ultimate responsibility for the war's failures lay at Mr. Olmert's door.

That's not how Mr. Olmert sees it.

"The only failure was appointing the Winograd commission," the Prime Minister reportedly told friends.

"This was the most successful war in the country's history, except for the [1948-49] War of Independence," associates quote him as saying.

"Since August, 2006, not a single bullet from Hezbollah has crossed that border," he pointed out to people on a trip to the North. "Nasrallah is still in a bunker, I'm walking around," he said. "You tell me who's won?"

"History may well view his years more positively," Ms. Hermann said. "Perhaps that Lebanon war did bring quiet to the North.

"But I think his lack of military background pushed him into action that others [such as Mr. Sharon or Ehud Barak] might not have taken."

GAZA

Similarly, the recent military campaign against Hamas in Gaza has been perceived as less than successful.

Hamas still rules the Gaza Strip, rockets still fly into Israel, albeit in smaller numbers, and the abducted Israeli soldier, Gilad Shalit, still has not been released.

On top of that, Israel has faced a barrage of international condemnation for what many perceive was a disproportionate use of force against a largely trapped population.

Mr. Olmert argues that the concept of modern warfare has changed. "When you fight terrorists within urban areas, you fight differently," associates say he recently told them. "The sooner people understand this, the better."

THE PALESTINIANS

It also was Mr. Olmert who, as early as 2003, said Israel needed to do something dramatic to break the cycle of violence between Israeli and Palestinian, a change of heart for him. His suggestion led to Mr. Sharon's decision to withdraw unilaterally from Gaza and to support a two-state solution.

"Both of us knew it would take a lot of the West Bank, as well as Gaza, to make a Palestinian state viable," Mr. Olmert later said.

So, at Annapolis, Md., in November, 2007, Mr. Olmert committed Israel, once again, to the peace process.

"It helped," he later said, "that we had a real partner for peace [Mahmoud Abbas].

"[Yasser] Arafat," Mr. Olmert said, "was a terrorist till he died."

What Mr. Olmert hadn't foreseen was the election and support for Hamas, a group to which the Prime Minister had a visceral reaction.

Still, he lectures everyone, including Mr. Netanyahu, that anyone who thinks he can resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict without a viable two-state solution is badly mistaken.

SYRIA

In May, it was revealed that Mr. Olmert had authorized secret, indirect talks with Syria aimed at negotiating a peace treaty. The meetings, taking place in Turkey, appeared to have picked up where talks with the late Israeli prime minister Yitzhak Rabin had left off.

"Once Olmert realized [Syrian President Bashar] Assad was serious, he was very happy to find a practical solution," says a long-time friend.

The talks, however, ran aground when Mr. Olmert declared war on Hamas in late December. It awaits his successor to resume them.

Mr. Olmert's brief administration resembles "a Greek tragedy," Ms. Hermann says. "He did the best he could under the circumstances."

And now the former prime minister will turn his attention to the criminal corruption indictments he may face.

Does that mean his political career is finished?

"Don't bet on it," the long-time Olmert friend said.

pmartin@globeandmail.com