China-Japan meeting signals a thaw in relations between Asian powerhouses

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It was, after nearly a year of speculation, more than a mere handshake.

The leaders of China and Japan, nations embroiled in a series of potentially dangerous dispute, met in Beijing Monday for the first time since each took power in the past two years. The encounter between Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe, in the gilded Great Hall of the People where China conducts its high-level state meetings, offered new hope of a thaw between Asia's two most powerful nations.

"This is a first step toward improving bilateral relations, returning to the core of a mutually beneficial relationship based on common strategic interests," Mr. Abe said after the meeting.

China and Japan have sparred over ownership of disputed islands, over control of international airspace and over questions of how the ugly history between them should be remembered. The fractious relationship has threatened violence, with air and naval forces playing cat-and-mouse games amid deepening mutual distrust. The visit last December by Japan's Mr. Abe to the Yasukuni Shrine, where Japanese war criminals are deified, had further animated dislike between the two nations.

But on Friday, just days before the launch of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Beijing, the two countries announced a series of measures that signalled a partial detente. They agreed to create a crisis management system over East China Sea issues and to resume political, diplomatic and security talks. Japan also agreed to acknowledge that its claim to several islands is disputed — something it had until now steadfastly refused to do.

That cleared the way for the Monday tete-a-tete.

The question over whether the two leaders would meet added a drama to APEC meetings that otherwise might not attract much attention. According to Chinese media reports, Mr. Xi called on Japan to be "prudent" in its military security policies, and play a "constructive role in guarding regional peace and stability."

Mr. Abe, Chinese media said, pledged a "new start" to press forward a beneficial strategic relationship between the two countries.

But in some ways the substance of the meeting was less important than the images of it: "Were they sitting or were they standing? Was it a bow or a handshake? Were eyebrows raised? And who raised the eyebrows more?" said Jeff Kingston, a professor in Asian studies at Temple University in Tokyo.

He was only partially kidding. The body language between the two leaders will almost certainly be heavily parsed by both sides. Indeed, televised images showed Mr. Xi standing stiff and saying nothing when the two leaders shook hands before television cameras — a nod to a domestic Chinese audience with strong antipathy toward Japan.

Still, China looks to be working to douse some of the flames fanned by its provocative foreign policy steps, also saying Monday it has agreed to hold talks with Vietnam on resolving maritime disputes — a change in tone from the recent past, when China has pursued its claim by drilling for oil in waters claimed by both nations.

And the formal setting for the Xi-Abe meeting was a good sign, Mr. Kingston said.

"The Great Hall of the People — that is a mark of respect. So it seems to be much more than the perfunctory nod and greet that many people had expected. It actually seems to be giving momentum to the process," he said.

The question now will be what happens going forward, after months of daily anti-Japan diatribe in Chinese state press — and, two years ago, fiery protests outside the Japanese embassy in Beijing and a consumer boycott of some Japanese goods in China.

Uichiro Niwa, the former Japanese ambassador to China, said the meeting marks nothing more than "Xi Jinping and Abe-san entering the door. Everything must be started from now on." He said it's unlikely the two will make any progress on the thorniest issues — the disputed islands and the Yasukuni Shrine. But they may make smaller steps on fisheries deals, natural resources agreements, investment deals and youth exchanges.

Still, he said it is for now more important for Japan to sort out is differences with the U.S. Do that, he said, and relations with China, and then with South Korea, have a better chance of improving. "If a good understanding between America and Japan could be accomplished, Chinese leaders will automatically respect that," he said.

Japanese exports to China are still down some 11.7 per cent since the turbulence of 2012, but the numbers are rising again this year and the overall economic relationship remains robust, with more than $320-billion (U.S.) in bilateral trade last year.

For the leaders of the two nations, "now the real big issue is, can they move it forward and avoid further confrontational gestures and statements," Mr. Kingston said.

"It's a very fragile relationship. So one meeting does not a thaw make. But it's a start."