A southern Sudanese woman shows her inked finger after voting at a polling centre in Khartoum on January 10, 2011 on the second day of a landmark independence referendum, bringing south Sudan a step closer to becoming the world's newest state.Khaled Desouki/AFP/Getty Images
Even as southern Sudan seems on the verge of peaceful independence, a fresh eruption of violence in a crucial flashpoint region has reminded it of the potential for more bloodshed if the negotiations are not carefully handled.
The violent clashes, which have killed up to 36 people in Abyei region in recent days, are unlikely to derail the referendum on secession as it enters its third day today. But they are brutal evidence of the tensions that could sabotage the south's dreams of a smooth transition to independence from Khartoum's rule.
Until the news of the escalating clashes in Abyei, the referendum was going surprisingly well. Turnout was heavy, queues were peaceful, there were few glitches in the voting, and crowds of people were patiently accepting the long wait for the chance to cast their ballot. From every indication, the referendum is likely to produce a massive landslide for secession.
On Monday, the second day of the referendum, the queues were much shorter at most polling stations. With five days remaining in the referendum period, the south should easily achieve the legally required threshold of a 60-per-cent turnout among the 3.9-million registered voters.
Then the south will have six months to negotiate with the north to settle the key disputes between the two sides - including Abyei - so that it can declare independence by the target of July 9.
But with violence flaring again in Abyei, those negotiations could be extremely difficult. Abyei is a microcosm of all the trickiest issues between the north and south. There are crucial questions of how to divide up its oil, how to draw its borders, how to settle its tribal clashes, and how to decide on the citizenship rights of its people, since many are nomads who regularly cross borders with their herds of cattle.
Sudan was supposed to hold a referendum in Abyei so that its people could decide whether they wanted to belong to the north or the south. But the two sides could not agree on who was eligible to vote, so the referendum has been postponed and might never be held. Instead the two sides must try to negotiate an agreement on all the sensitive points of Abyei's future.
Abyei officials said the Ngok Dinka people - farmers who are loyal to the south - were attacked by a nomadic Arab people, the Misseriya, who are loyal to the north. Nearly two dozen Dinka police officers and about a dozen Misseriya were killed in the clashes in the past three days, reports said.
The Misseriya, who migrate into Abyei every year to seek pastures and water for their cattle, are in frequent conflict with the Dinka, a permanently settled people who grow crops. The Misseriya are demanding the right to vote in any referendum on Abyei's future, but the south objects.
The Misseriya, armed with anti-tank weapons and artillery in the latest clashes, are believed to be supported by the Khartoum government. They were reportedly accompanied by a Khartoum-backed militia when they attacked a village in Abyei on Sunday. Abyei officials said the Misseriya had heard false rumours that the Dinka were going to declare themselves part of the south.
Analysts say it is possible to settle the Abyei issue if the two sides are conciliatory. On Monday, former U.S. president Jimmy Carter said the government of President Omar al-Bashir has agreed to accept all of Sudan's $38-billion debt if the south secedes. It was the latest sign that Mr. Bashir might be moving toward a potential deal with the south to allow it to secede without a fight.
Here are the latest updates via Twitter from The Globe's Geoffrey York:
Geoffrey York