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Haiti faces a period of prolonged political drift after the country's electoral authority signalled it would delay a second vote to select a new president.

Officials said a new date for the runoff - meant to take place Jan. 16 - would not be set until the Organization of American States issues its findings on electoral fraud in the first ballot.

Most observers now believe the earliest a deciding vote could take place is February, when current President René Préval's current term officially expires.

Some say the election should be pushed back even further.

"Nothing's really changed on the ground since the earthquake," said Mark Weisbrot, co-director of the Center for Economic And Policy Research, a Washington-based think tank.

"If any government has an excuse to extend its mandate, this one does," he says.

A deferral, however, could fan tensions on the ground. Violence flared when initial results indicated Michel Martelly failed to secure a place in the two-person runoff and his supporters torched the streets.

The popular singer was narrowly edged out by Jude Célestin, Mr. Preval's chosen successor, who would have run against former first lady Mirlande Manigat.

Outside Port-au-Prince, there is a pervasive sense that dragging out the election cannot cause more damage than has already been done.

The troubled Nov. 28 ballot in the midst of a cholera epidemic delivered a one-two punch that killed much of the momentum toward recovery that had begun to coalesce.

The uncertainty has left many with the sense that Haiti's government will never change for the better.

"I don't care about the election," said Joel Khawly, a prominent businessman who leads one of Haiti's most successful families. "Whoever comes, nothing is going to change."

Analysts, however, suggest there are several ways forward:

1. A second vote with Ms. Manigat and Mr. Célestin.

If the OAS fails to substantiate claims of widespread fraud, these top two candidates would face off. Mr. Martelly would have to publicly concede to avoid a scenario where his supporters once again took to the streets.

2. A second vote with Ms. Manigat, Mr. Célestin and Mr. Martelly.

While some countries, such as Brazil, support this scenario as the best option, it would violate the terms of Haiti's constitution, which specifies a presidential runoff must take place between the top two candidates. Still, given the volatility of the situation on the ground, a contest between the presumed top three candidates is gaining traction.

3. An outright cancellation of the first vote and Mr. Préval stepping down.

This idea was first floated by a coalition of 12 presidential candidates before the polls even closed on Nov. 28th. Citing "massive fraud" they called for a do-over. So far, the international community has shied away from supporting this option.

4. A fresh election.

This scenario is an evolution of the previous one. It would see the original 17 candidates throw their hats back into the ring. The winner, regardless of the margin, would win the presidency.

5. Striking a coalition government.

Such a scenario would avoid putting the country through another vote - which critics say would be traumatic as it struggles to find its feet a year after the devastating earthquake. However, it would do little to address frustration with Mr. Préval's rule. Nor does this option address the international community's initial argument that Haiti's recovery be presaged by political stability.





Tally sheet recount

An independent recount of more than 11,000 tally sheets from Haiti's Nov. 28th election by the Washington-based Center for Economic and Policy Research reveals:

- Nearly 12 per cent of the tally sheets were never received by Haiti's Electoral Council or were quarantined by the CEP due to irregularities. These tally sheets account for more than 15 per cent of the total votes counted.

- 5 per cent of tally sheets had numbers that were obvious clerical errors.

- Turnout was extremely low: an estimated 22.3 per cent of the electorate cast a vote, compared with 59.3 per cent in the 2006 presidential election.

Source: Center for Economic and Policy Research

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