A Korean woman, top, buys a newspaper reporting the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong Il at a Korea Times kiosk in Los Angeles, Monday, Dec. 19, 2011.Jae C. Hong
Is the new leader likely to be more reform-minded than his father?
Analysts say Kim Jong-il's death provides North Korea an opportunity to break from its past of misplaced economic policies, diplomatic isolation and military threats by embracing outside help and market-driven reforms. His son, Kim Jong-un, studied in Switzerland and is closer in age to a younger group of reformers who have introduced programs to bring in foreign investment and allow limited use of mobile phones and the Internet, said Narushige Michishita, an expert at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. But a study-abroad program doesn't necessarily lead to enlightenment and liberation. Just ask the people of Syria, who live under the fist of U.K.-educated Bashar al-Assad.
Will there be a gratuitous show of strength soon?
It's possible. "Kim Jong-un is a pale reflection of his father and grandfather," the Heritage Foundation's Bruce Klingner tells Reuters. Kim Jong-il was groomed for 20 years to succeed his father, while Kim Jong-un is still something of a neophyte. He might need to provoke a crisis, such as a showdown with the United States or South Korea, "to prove his mettle to other senior leaders or deflect attention from the regime's failings." Fortunately, it won't take a war, says Allahpundit at Hot Air. "A limited provocation – like a new nuclear test, for starters – might be enough of a show of force to keep everyone at home in line."
Why did North Korea wait two days to announce his death?
The gap between Mr. Kim's death Saturday on a train and its public announcement Monday underscored the government's nervousness, analysts said. "The fact that they delayed for two days goes to show that the North Koreans are worried about instability," said Gong Keyu of Shanghai's Institute for International Studies.
Could we see a popular uprising in North Korea like the Arab Spring?
Domestic unrest may percolate, analysts said, as North Koreans tire of poverty and the mobile phones and Internet connections that are a product of recent reforms leave them better informed about the outside world. Expectations among North Koreans for change are likely to make the road ahead rough for the younger Mr. Kim, said Cui Yingjiu, a retired professor of Korean language at Peking University in Beijing and a former classmate of Kim Jong-il's in Pyongyang in the 1960s. "The old way of thinking is changing. The time for dictators has passed," he said. "They see the changes in China. They're only thinking about money now."
What happens to U.S. efforts to restart nuclear disarmament talks?
Pyongyang is likely to slow decision-making, upending efforts to restart the talks just as the United States and North Korea seemed on the verge of resuming them. After months of delicate discussions, Washington was poised to announce a donation of food aid this week followed by an agreement with Pyongyang to suspend a uranium enrichment program, people close to the negotiations told the Associated Press.
Is it business as usual for its patron state China?
They're probably nervous, too. China's biggest concern is the uncertainty that could arise from internal succession politics. "For China, peace and stability in North Korea is most important," Gong Keyu, deputy director of the Centre for Asian-Pacific Studies at the Shanghai Institute for International Studies and a leading Chinese scholar on North Korea, told The Hindu. China has already indicated it will continue supporting the North, which it views as a crucial strategic buffer, with financial and food aid. Officials were thought to have assured Kim Jong-il earlier this year that they would back his son and designated successor, Kim Jong-un, when they both reportedly travelled to China on a secretive visit. But even Beijing, Pyongyang's closest ally, appeared to have been taken by surprise by news of his death on Monday. The Foreign Ministry, in a statement, said it was "shocked" to learn of his death.
Sources: Associated Press, The Week, The Hindu.