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Patrick Martin

Syria's Bashar al-Assad losing faith of religious and ethnic minorities Add to ...

But, most important, Damascus and Aleppo are where one finds the largest concentration of the government's secret police and other security forces.

"Don't misinterpret the quiet," said one businessman who has been in and out of Syria a couple of times since the protests began. "This isn't support. It's fear." Fear both of retribution, and chaos.

Syria's Kurds, who account for about 10 per cent of the population and who usually are the most vocal of the government's opponents, have been quiet as well. Perhaps they were mollified by the approval of citizenship for some 300,000 Druze that Mr. al-Assad announced in the early days of the protests.

More likely it's because this is not their fight. Theirs is a struggle for nationhood, not a battle for reform. Better they should wait and see how they might advance their own cause from whatever comes next.

DAMASCUS MEETS BELGRADE

The members of the Assad alliance care more about having their own interests safeguarded than in the protection of the President and his immediate family. If a way could be found for Bashar al-Assad to go and a reform-minded regime to stay, they would take it.

But if the President is determined to fight to the end, it will be every group for themselves.

"If the Alawites lose the battle for the Syrian street and their control of the government, the worst will transpire for them," said Mordechai Kedar, a professor at Bar Ilan University in Tel Aviv and a veteran of 25 years in Israel's military intelligence. "Frenzied Sunni masses will descend on Alawi neighbourhoods in Damascus, Homs, Hama and Aleppo armed with knives, ready to detach Alawi heads from their necks."

After that, he predicts, the country that France cobbled together almost a century ago could be blown apart much as happened to Yugoslavia.

"The Kurds in the north will declare independence as did their brethren in Iraq; the Druze in the south will restore the autonomy stolen from them by France in 1925; the Bedouins in the east will establish a state with Dir a-Zur as its capital; the Aleppans will exploit the opportunity to throw off the yoke of the hated Damascenes."

"Thus," concludes Mr. Kedar, "six states will rise from the ruins of Syria, each more homogeneous than the former united Syria and more legitimate in the eyes of most of its inhabitants."

LAST GASP: NEW TACTICS

Bashar al-Assad is undoubtedly aware of all of this and may finally be shifting his tactics.

His efforts to contain the protests, and the most militarized of his responses, have increasingly been in the areas of historic Sunni agitation. From 1976 to 1982, Islamists sought to overthrow the regime of Hafez al-Assad. They were crushed in the very cities to which the current regime is turning its attention, including Jisr ash-Shughur.

But whereas the father's regime killed tens of thousands (facilitated by a lack of modern communications that hid the events for weeks if not months), the son is taking a different approach.

His armoured divisions spent an unusually long time assembling on the outskirts of Jisr ash-Shughur after warning of extreme retribution for the killing of 120 members of the security forces the previous week. The days taken to mount the attack gave the city's population ample time to disperse. Conveniently, the military forces were deployed to the south and east of the town, leaving the corridor to the Turkish frontier unobstructed.

Add to that the willingness of the government forces, for the first time, to allow journalists with connections to Western media to accompany the attack, and one of the first real glimpses into events in Syria in months has emerged.

It shows some evidence of a small armed opposition in the city, and a mass grave of uniformed people, although it remains unclear just which side did the killing of those buried.

All in all, it appears to have been an effort to escape some of the bad publicity the regime has encountered.

Elias Samo, a retired professor in Aleppo, hopes it's not too late for the President to turn things around. Mr. Samo, who conducted back-channel talks with Israeli academics some 20 years ago, said the regime has used far too much of the stick against the protesters and not enough of the carrot of political reforms. "One hopes the carrot and stick configuration now will be reversed," he said, "and the reforms will move at a faster rate."

Rami Khouri, director of the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut, believes it is too late for the Syrian President. "He's already gone over the edge," he said. "I don't see any way back."

Not for Bashar al-Assad, but perhaps for the regime, minus its leader.

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