Residents check cars in Tunis on January 16, 2011 to protect themselves from alleged supporters of ousted strongman Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. In the center of Tunis, security forces exchanged fire with unidentified attackers hidden inside buildings, AFP reporters said. The shooting kicked off after an exchange of fire oustide the headquarters of the main opposition party.Fred Dufour/AFP/Getty Images/AFP / Getty Images
Sporadic gunfights flared up in Tunis as apparent supporters of ousted president Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali battled newly deployed security forces in and around the capital.
But after a weekend of rioting and political musical chairs, Tunisia's interim administration appeared Sunday to have gained control of the volatile situation.
Prime Minister Mohamed Ghannouchi is expected to announce a new government Monday after a weekend of consultations with interim President Fouad Mebazza and with leaders of the approved opposition.
Mr. Mebazza, the speaker of the parliament, was sworn in as interim president Saturday after a judicial ruling that Mr. Ghannouchi, who had assumed the office of president on Friday, was in violation of the constitution.
As a result Mr. Ghannouchi has been restored as Prime Minister, in which capacity, some observers say, he still will be firmly in control of the country.
In a broadcast to the nation, Mr. Ghannouchi vowed Sunday evening that there would be "zero tolerance" of anyone threatening the security of the country.
Ahmed Ibrahim, head of the opposition Ettajdid party, was among party leaders scheduled to meet the Prime Minister.
"The main thing for us right now is to stop all this disorder," he said. "We are in agreement on several principles concerning the new government."
While the approved opposition has been involved in this new process, a larger question surrounds the outlawed opposition.
Rachid Ghannoushi, for example, leader of the outlawed Islamist Renaissance Party, says he will return immediately to Tunis and re-establish his movement. The constitution calls for the interim president to call for an election with 60 days, but Mr. Ghannoushi and others asked for more time to organize before any vote.
Tariq Ramadan, an influential Islamic writer and philosopher, who also has been banned from Tunisia because of his relationship (grandson) to the founder of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood, cautioned Tunisians against the staying power of the old guard.
"The people may be offered the appearance of freedom minus the dictator, followed by a new clampdown on Tunisian political life," Mr. Ramadan said. "Let us indeed hail this first victory but be aware that the outcome is far from settled."
It may be far from certain, but Arabs around the region have been quick to embrace Tunisians for what they see as their heroic uprising.
"For the first time I'm proud to be an Arab," said Ahmad Aweidah, CEO of the Palestine Exchange in Ramallah. "People are fed up and this gives them something to hope for," he said.
Does that include Palestinians? "No," said Mr. Aweidah, It's not necessary to challenge the leader here. The vast majority of the people support President [Mahmoud]Abbas's program."
Indeed, despite talk of domino effects toppling Arab autocrats, there are few if any Arab states in which that's likely to happen, at least not in the short term.
For one thing, regimes will learn from events in Tunisia. Syria, for example, just announced a large increase in subsidies for fuel oil, after previously cutting the subsidies, and Jordan announced a large package of financial assistance for food and fuel.
Adnan abu Odeh, a former adviser to Jordan's late King Hussein, wonders if the right people are going to learn the right lessons.
"Will countries in the West learn the lesson? Will the World Bank and IMF? They are the ones supporting Arab regimes that are too entrenched."
"We have no political reform in our countries," Mr. Abu Odeh. "As a result, we have no real economic reform, and little industrial development."
"Globalization and privatization have not helped because of this lack of reform," he said.
"People still turn to their governments to employ them, there's little else. But governments can't employ everyone any more."
Most analysts agree that the biggest problem the Arab world faces is demographics.
Arabs under the age of 30 make up nearly 65 per cent of the population, and most share the concerns of Tunisia's youth - employment is their biggest worry. Polls conducted last year around the region show that among 15 to 29-year-olds, 30 per cent say they would migrate permanently if they had a chance to do so. (The percentage was significantly higher in Tunisia, Morocco and Yemen.) "The function of our universities, it seems, is to create unemployment," Mr. Abu Odeh said, "even as they raise expectations."
"The disease is the same everywhere in the region."
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32 days of turmoil in Tunisia
Day 1: Man sets himself on fire on Dec. 17 over lack of jobs, sparking protests
Day 8: Protester shot dead Dec. 24 in central Tunisia
Day 12: Protests spread to Tunis, the capital, on Dec. 28
Days 23-25: Dozens of deaths reported in crackdown on protests Jan. 8-10
Day 27: Interior Minister fired Jan. 12.
Days 28: President Zine El Abidine Ben Ali promises Jan. 13 to step down in 2014
Day 29: Mr. Ben Ali dissolves parliament Jan. 14 after new mass rally, then steps down and flees
Day 30: Parliamentary Speaker Fouad Mebazaa sworn in as interim president on Saturday
Day 32: New government to be announced on Monday
Sources: BBC, AFP