Ruling Workers Party presidential candidate Dilma Rousseff arrives at a polling station before voting during Brazil's presidential election, in Porto Alegre, Brazil.Tarlis Schneider
In only a year, Dilma Rousseff has skyrocketed from a respected, yet little known political staffer to being on the verge of becoming one of the most powerful women in the world.
She came one step closer Sunday in her bid to succeed the wildly popular Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as Brazil's next leader. In a country were voting is compulsory, Ms. Rousseff won 46.5 per cent in the first round of voting for president, with more than 97 per cent of polls reporting. Her nearest rival, former Sao Paulo governor Jose Serra, came second with 33 per cent. A strong showing yesterday by the Green Party candidate Marina Silva, with 19.5 per cent, spoiled Ms. Rousseff's chances for an outright victory in the first round.
If she wins in the run-off against Ms. Serra on Oct. 31, as is expected, Ms. Rousseff will take the reins of the world's eighth largest economy, and a country poised to become a major global oil producer.
This is only Ms. Rousseff's first time running for elected office. As Mr. da Silva's hand-picked heir for leadership of the incumbent Workers Party (PT), and his chief of staff for the past five years, her prospects for winning have been firmly pinned to her boss's popularity. Luckily, Mr. da Silva still enjoys a staggering 75 per cent approval rating.
One year ago, her candidacy was widely considered a long shot. A career technocrat, she had zero name recognition among Brazilians and possessed little of Mr. da Silva's famous charisma or ability to connect with people.
The media also made an issue of Ms. Rousseff's health, as she spent much of last year recovering from lymphatic cancer.
Mr. da Silva's constant stumping on her behalf helped turn the tide. Rarely was he not at her side on the campaign trail, reflecting his considerable lustre on his protégé. He was fined by election official several times for premature campaigning or misstating Ms. Rousseff's accomplishments.
Like Jose Mujica, the recently installed president of neighbouring Uruguay, Ms. Rousseff is part of a generation who came of age battling the rightist military dictatorships that dominated the continent in the 1970s. The daughter of a Bulgarian immigrant and teenage convert to Marxism, Ms. Rousseff was imprisoned for three years in the early 1970s for her membership in an armed underground resistance group.
After leaving prison, Ms. Rousseff and her then husband Carlos Araujo became active in the politics of his home state of Rio Grande do Sul. It was there that Ms. Rousseff first earned a reputation as an effective, if occasionally combative administrator, holding a succession of roles in the state government.
Newly elected and in search of a cabinet, Mr. da Silva came calling in 2002. Legend has it that he was so taken with Ms. Rousseff, that within moments of their meeting he announced "that's my energy minister."
It wasn't first impressions alone that won Mr. da Silva over. As Rio Grande do Sul's secretary of energy, Ms. Rousseff had dramatically increased electrical capacity there. Mr. da Silva hoped she could do the same for the entire country, avoiding the chronic blackouts and shortages that had plagued the previous administration.
In 2005, Ms. Rousseff was promoted to Mr. da Silva's chief of staff after a congressional vote-buying scandal that ensnared several senior members of the PT leadership.
Since then, Brazil under Mr. da Silva has shed its status as a chronic underachiever. The country suffered only a minor pause during the recent economic downturn and is back to posting an annual growth rate of 6 per cent. Unemployment is at an all-time low; foreign investment is at an all-time high. Pioneering social policies have narrowed the country's notorious income inequalities. By 2014, massive off-shore oil finds are expected to turn Brazil into a net energy exporter. Meanwhile, Mr. da Silva has wielded his considerable star power to expand Brazil's influence abroad.
For all that's now going in Brazil's favour, it means that should Ms. Rousseff prevail, she will have one of the toughest acts to follow in politics anywhere. The charismatic and colourful Mr. da Silva is singularly identified with the country's transformation over the past decade. The Lula personality cult that helped get her elected could become a hindrance as she works to meet expectations.
The next president will have to tackle some major reforms that Mr. da Silva's government neglected - reforms that threaten to undermine Brazil's ascendancy.
Despite modest progress on enrolment, the quality of public education lags far behind that of fellow emerging economies in China and Russia. Brazil is already showing signs of a skilled labour shortage. Critics complain the country lacks a culture that values education. They say Mr. da Silva's boasting of his achievements despite only a fifth-grade education didn't help.
Public investment in general has not kept pace with the country's growth. Businesses are saddled with extra costs and delays thanks to a languishing transport infrastructure. The country is already behind on its commitment to increase airport capacity in advance of hosting the 2014 World Cup.
Brazil is also in need of some financial restructuring. Interest rates remain the highest in the world, a legacy of the country's past struggles with hyper-inflation. A lavish pension system is putting increased pressure on the public purse.
And no matter the financial windfall, the next president can expect tough questions over how Brazil develops its deep-sea oil reserves, and the activities of the powerful, state-controlled energy company Petrobras.
It's unclear what sort of role Mr. da Silva would play in a Rousseff administration. Speculation abounds that he will wait out the next presidential term and make a return bid for power in 2014. For now, he has said only that he intends to return to Sao Bernardo do Campo, near Sao Paulo, where his career as a labour leader began.
Special to The Globe and Mail