In 2014, Senate Democrats are saddled with an unpopular President and a grim midterm reality: low turnout among key constituencies, with a half-dozen of its number defending vulnerable and vacant seats in states handily won by Mitt Romney two years ago.LARRY DOWNING/Reuters
It's been a disappointing spring for Tea Party activists and, therefore, Democrat hopes of defending a vulnerable majority in the Senate next November.
In 2014, Senate Democrats are saddled with an unpopular President and a grim midterm reality: low turnout among key constituencies, with a half-dozen of its number defending vulnerable and vacant seats in states handily won by Mitt Romney two years ago. The best hope of the President's party had been that Republicans would – again – commit political suicide by allowing unelectable Tea Party zealots to unseat mainstream establishment candidates and thus hand should-be-safe Red seats to the Democrats.
Instead, the Republican establishment has apparently learned the lesson of 2010 and 2012 and outspent, out-organized and soundly trounced most Tea Party insurgents. The party is well positioned to pick up the six Senate seats it needs to control both Houses of Congress.
Only a few months ago, Democrats were hoping that Tea Party upsets of several big-name Republican Senate incumbents would give them a fighting chance to steal a Republican seat or two.
Instead Republican Senate heavyweights Lamar Alexander in Tennessee, Lindsey Graham in South Carolina and, most importantly, Mitch McConnell in Kentucky fought off Tea Party challenges.
"I think we are going to crush them everywhere," Mr. McConnell said of Tea Party insurgents earlier this spring. So far – to the relief of the Republican mainstream and the dismay of Democrats – he has been proven right.
Big-name incumbents can, of course, still be beaten, but Democrat hopes of facing wacky Tea Party candidates in places like Kentucky – faceoffs that could have vastly improved their chances or put supposedly safe Republican seats in play – have all but disappeared.
That stands in striking contrast to the last two Senate elections. In both 2010 and 2012 Republicans lost several Senate races by fielding unelectable Tea Party candidates. Several imploded while outraging centrist swing voters. Democrats sailed to easy victories in Delaware over Christine "I am not a witch" O'Donnell; in Missouri, over Todd "it's legitimate rape" Akin; in Indiana, over Richard '"something that God intended to happen" if a woman became pregnant after rape Mourdock; and in Nevada over Sharron "I'm tired of some people calling me wacky" Angle, who went on to suggest that gunning down sitting senators might be justified. Calling for "Second Amendment remedies," she said: "The first thing we need to do is take [Nevada's Democrat Sen.] Harry Reid out."
Not this year. So far the Republican Party has managed to avoid shooting itself in the foot.
Even in the rare cases where Tea Party activists have unseated sitting Republicans, it won't help Democrats.
For instance, in Texas, the nation's oldest congressman, 91-year-old Republican Ralph Hall, was ousted by John Ratcliffe, who had Tea Party backing. But the seat is so safe that Democrats aren't even running and the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is equally rock solid.
In Mississippi, Thad Cochran, 76, the last Republican Senate grandee facing a serious Tea Party challenge – from 41-year-old Chris McDaniel – was locked in a too-close-to-call race after Tuesday's primary and will likely face a runoff later this month. But the outcome then will make little difference to Democrat fortunes, as either Republican should easily win in solidly red Mississippi in November.
Pragmatism has trumped infighting for Republicans this year. Iowa is a good example: There, Republicans across the spectrum have backed Joni Ernst who has a solid chance to win retiring Democratic Senator Tom Harkin's seat. Ms. Ernst boasted in a TV ad that she learned to castrate pigs as a girl as is thus well positioned to cut pork in Washington.
Meanwhile, Democrats are fighting to defend Senate seats in six states that President Barack Obama lost to Mr. Romney two years ago: Alaska, Arkansas, Louisiana, Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia.
Two of those seats, South Dakota and West Virginia, are open and are expected to go Republican. Mr. Obama's proposed crackdown on coal-fired emissions announced earlier this week may save the planet for future generations, but it will almost certainly doom Democratic chances in West Virginia where the President is accused, even by his own party, of waging a "war on coal."
The coal crackdown didn't help Alison Grimes in Kentucky either. The Democrat already faces an uphill fight against Mr. McConnell.
"When I'm in the U.S. Senate, I will fiercely oppose the President's attack on Kentucky's coal industry," Ms. Grimes said in a blunt denunciation of Mr. Obama that typifies the stance of many Democrat in Senate races.
In four other states won by Mr. Romney in 2012, Democrat incumbents are running for their political lives to distance themselves from Mr. Obama.
In Arkansas, Mark Pryor has turned for help to the "Big Dog," as former president Bill Clinton is called in his native state, but polls show him running neck-and-neck with Republican challenger Tom Cotton.
In Alaska, Democrat Senator Mark Begich wants nothing to do with an unpopular president in a traditionally Republican state. "I don't need him to campaign for me," Mr. Begich said of Mr. Obama.
In Louisiana, embattled Democrat Senator Mary Landrieu – among the most ardent proponents of the Keystone XL pipeline – has similarly moved to separate herself from the President on Obamacare, the pipeline decision delay and now the crackdown on carbon emissions.
Ms. Landrieu "has time and time again opposed the EPA acting alone to reduce carbon emissions," her office said in a statement within hours of the White House saying it wanted a 30 per cent cut in emissions from coal-fired plants.
In Montana, Republican Representative Steve Daines has a double-digit lead in polls over incumbent Democrat Senator John Walsh.
For all of them, running away from the President will be much tougher than running against a Tea Party insurgent who upset a centrist Republican.