Fake ‘intelligence dossier’ highlights power struggle in South Africa

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In South Africa, you can always tell when the latest power struggle is under way. That's when the fake "intelligence dossiers" begin to emerge, with their bizarre allegations dressed up in the guise of leaked internal-espionage reports.

The latest one is a doozy. Sent to the Treasury Department under anonymous cover, it claims that apartheid agents set up "Project Spider Web" to perpetuate the power of white elites through a secret network of sympathizers at the top of the government, thwarting the power of the ruling African National Congress.

The clumsily written 27-page document is filled with absurd details, including Hollywood-style code names for the cabinet ministers and bureaucrats in the supposed "Spider Web" network. The alleged apartheid agents are referred to as "The King of Leaves" and "The Emperor" and "The Jackal."

But the fake dossier is significant, provoking much debate in the South African media, because it reveals the targets of the backroom schemers who sponsored it. And top of the enemies list is the deputy president, Cyril Ramaphosa – the potential successor to Jacob Zuma as president of South Africa in the next election in 2019. By trying to smear Mr. Ramaphosa as an apartheid sympathizer, the document shows that the struggle for dominance in the post-Zuma era has begun.

"Cyril Ramaphosa is seen as one of the most important events in the history of the Spider Web," the document claims. "There is a belief that once he is appointed the state president of South Africa, he will be able to achieve most objectives of the Spider Web. ..."

Under normal ANC traditions, Mr. Ramaphosa would ascend to the party's leadership at its next elective conference in 2017, and then would become national president two years later. But a powerful cabal of ANC officials and backroom operatives – including the sponsors of the fake "Spider Web" dossier – are determined to stop him. Their secretive campaign shows that South Africa's ruling party remains in the grip of shadowy backroom operatives and undemocratic tactics.

Mr. Ramaphosa has every qualification for the presidency. He fought apartheid as a union leader in the 1980s. He helped negotiate the end of apartheid and the drafting of the post-apartheid constitution. He was a close ally of Nelson Mandela, the liberation hero and first democratic president. When he lost the battle to succeed Mr. Mandela, he went into business and built a corporate empire. Returning to the government as deputy president last year, he has become the "Mr. Fix-It" of the ruling party, tasked with the trouble-shooter role on a long list of diplomatic and political crises.

With his pragmatism and efficiency, Mr. Ramaphosa is usually the man who is assigned to clean up Mr. Zuma's messes, especially after deeply unpopular scandals over electricity shortages, highway tolling schemes, tourism crises and other controversies. Throughout it all, he has remained quietly loyal, revealing none of the ambitions that might ruffle the feathers of Mr. Zuma. (This week, he told journalists that his only ambition was to be a "janitor in Parliament.")

Despite his obvious qualifications, Mr. Ramaphosa is viewed as an outsider and a threat to the entrenched power of many ANC elites. He is not from Mr. Zuma's stronghold, the Zulu regions in the south that still provide the largest number of Zuma voters. He is a capitalist and a pragmatist, which threatens the influence of corrupt ANC cadres and the South African Communist Party, a key ANC ally. With his personal wealth, he is less corruptible and less susceptible to pressure from the party's insiders. As president, he might even allow the prosecution of Mr. Zuma and his family members or allies on corruption allegations that have persisted for years – the nightmare scenario for the Zuma camp.

This is not to say that Mr. Ramaphosa has completely clean hands himself. He has been widely criticized for his role as a director and shareholder of Lonmin, owners of the Marikana platinum mine where 34 protesters were gunned down by police in 2012. Critics accused him of having "blood on his hands." But while his reputation was damaged, an inquiry has cleared him of wrongdoing, so he remains a front-runner in the post-Zuma succession battle.

To block Mr. Ramaphosa's ascension, some of Mr. Zuma's loyalists have suddenly begun arguing that it's time for a female president. It's a noble thought, but it comes from politicians who never expressed much interest in women's rights in the past. Analysts say the push for a woman as leader is a disguised attempt to ensure that Mr. Zuma's successor is one of his allies – someone who won't dare to prosecute him or his family for corruption.

The most likely female candidate is Mr. Zuma's ex-wife, Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, a former South African cabinet minister who is now the chairperson of the African Union. Another possibility is parliamentary Speaker Baleka Mbete, the ANC's chairperson. Both are seen as Zuma loyalists who would protect him after he leaves office.

South Africa's media have been filled with speculation on the power struggle in recent days. Yet there is no open campaigning. The ANC prefers to keep everything in the back rooms. Even in 2012, when Mr. Ramaphosa was anointed as the ANC's deputy leader, he did it all without a single campaign speech, and without any indication of his policy views. When the ANC chooses its leaders, there are never any candidate debates, campaign manifestos, grassroots meetings or public declarations of policies or financing. So the secrecy of the latest power struggle is normal for the ruling party.

"The truth is that there is a presidential campaign under way in the ANC," political analyst Justice Malala wrote this month in The Times, a South African daily. "But the debate is in the shadows, is corrupted by money and is far removed from the rump of the ANC membership."

Clandestine tactics were necessary within the ANC during the anti-apartheid struggle, and during its years in exile, Mr. Malala said. "They are anachronistic now. They serve those who prosper from conspiracies and in the darkness."

It's time for the ANC to modernize, he said, to "step out of the shadows and into the light."