Hillary Clinton’s winning presidential strategy: Do nothing

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Hillary Rodham Clinton is not a candidate for president. But so far she's been running a flawless presidential campaign.

There's no contradiction in those two sentences. Ms. Clinton is clearly the candidate most Democrats want for 2016; she has done little to dissuade them that she eventually will be a candidate; and, in many senses, her partial withdrawal from public appearances only enhances her appeal and her prospects.

Indeed, Mrs. Clinton's presidential hopes would only be diminished if she did anything else.

If she rushed to announce her intentions, she would lose the sense of mystery that surrounds her; she would detract from the relative serenity she requires to finish her book; she would prompt a flurry of attention that might cause her to peak too soon; she would prompt a lot of damaging conversation about a Clinton dynasty (to match the conversation about a Bush dynasty); she would relinquish the above-it-all aura she currently possesses; and she would increase the attacks upon her, her record – and her husband.

She doesn't need any of those things – she doesn't like any of those things – and thus her best strategy is to hold back. Hold back from signaling her intentions. Hold back from entering the fray. Hold back from placing herself in the position of providing any answers that might alienate anyone.

It's working for her thus far. The latest McClatchy-Marist Poll, a respected barometer of public opinion, found this month that Ms. Clinton would defeat her strongest possible Republican rival, Paul Ryan of Wisconsin, the 2012 Republican vice-presidential nominee, by a 51-43 margin. That was before the news late last week that she is about to become a grandmother.

In short: Mrs. Clinton campaigns best by campaigning least.

She is the only person in American politics since perhaps Dwight D. Eisenhower for whom that can be said.

The question is how long she can run a campaign that is propelled by not running. She can do so for a few more months, certainly. It will, however, become far more difficult after Labour Day, when the Democratic effort to retain the party's slender majority in the Senate will gain real urgency.

Vice-President Joe Biden has already indicated he plans to campaign for scores of Democrats – not only Senate candidates, but House and gubernatorial incumbents and challengers, too – and so will many of the other, lesser-known Democratic aspirants.

Mrs. Clinton, strengthened at present by her absence from the political whirlwind, might find herself conspicuous by her absence in the fall midterm campaigns, and she may well find it in her interest to stump for some of her fellow Democrats. It was Richard Nixon's assiduous efforts for Republican candidates in 1966 that positioned him to win the GOP nomination two years later and to be inaugurated president in 1969.

Mrs. Clinton's attractiveness as a surrogate campaigner for Democratic candidates may actually grow, given the unattractiveness of Barack Obama in the same role. With many Democrats backing away from Obamacare – this is evident in, among other places, Alaska, New Hampshire, and Georgia – the presence of the president in their states and districts could be more to the Republicans' advantage than to the Democrats'. That may increase the pressure on Ms. Clinton to campaign for Democrats – Democrats whose state and local organizations could be of immense help to her once she goes public with her campaign and once the 2016 struggle begins in earnest.

An important date to watch: June 10.

That's when Simon and Schuster expects to release Ms. Clinton's memoir of her years as secretary of state. The publication of the book itself will be a big event – her earlier volume, Living History, principally on her White House years, sold a million copies –but that's only the start. With the book comes a book tour, which means loads of local interviews, and a television blast on network shows.

It's a perfect way to monopolize the airwaves, increase the anticipation, tease the pundits. It's one more way Ms. Clinton can campaign across the country without actually campaigning – the formula that has worked so well for her so far.

David Shribman, executive editor of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, won a Pulitzer Prize for coverage of U.S. politics.