With his usual lavish birthday party, Robert Mugabe will celebrate his 90th birthday in February. He is one of the world's longest-reigning autocrats, entering his 34th year as ruler of Zimbabwe next year. You would think he might be ready for retirement. You would be wrong.
After a manipulated triumph in national elections this year, Mr. Mugabe seems more ambitious than ever. Having ousted the opposition from a coalition government, his domination is complete. His supporters are boasting that he could rule until the age of 100.
Technically, they are nearly correct. Under the new Zimbabwean constitution that was approved this year, Mr. Mugabe is legally allowed two more five-year terms as president, so he could stay in power until the age of 99. He has confounded the pundits who claimed that his health was deteriorating. They thought he would be gone by now, yet he is still in power – bolstered by mysterious trips to Asia, where he is rumored to be getting medical treatment.
His potential successors have been jostling for position. One of them, vice-president Joice Mujuru, won a sweeping victory in party elections in most provinces this week, solidifying her status as the likely next Zimbabwean president. She inherits Mr. Mugabe's office if he dies or resigns.
But there is absolutely no sign that the Zimbabwean strongman is ready to step down, and his loyalists insist that he will remain president for a long time. "If you read in the Bible, there are some people who went beyond 100 years but still ruled," said Didymus Mutasa, a senior official in Mr. Mugabe's ruling party, in the state-owned Herald newspaper. "Why can't it be repeated?"
Analysts agree that Mr. Mugabe will fight to keep a grip on power for as long as he can. In the meantime, his ruling party is continuing to run Zimbabwe's troubled economy into the ground.
Only two main sources of money – diamond revenue and Chinese investment – are keeping the economy afloat. The Mugabe government is intensifying its push to "indigenize" the economy by forcing foreign investors to give up control of their mining projects or other investments. Only the Chinese seem able to cut the necessary deals to preserve their economic power.
Mr. Mugabe routinely blames the British and U.S. governments for his economic problems, claiming that his country is suffering from the sanctions that the Western countries have imposed. But those sanctions are not the reason for Zimbabwe's struggles. The sanctions are narrowly targeted, focusing only on Mr. Mugabe personally and a small powerful elite around him, restricting their ability to travel to Western capitals.
The real reason for Zimbabwe's woes is the massive and arbitrary power of the Mugabe government, which has nearly destroyed the country's infrastructure and regularly seizes shares in foreign projects, discouraging investors from staying in the mineral-rich country.
Consider the plight of the 900 unemployed workers at the Dalny gold mine in Zimbabwe, owned by a Canadian company, New Dawn Mining Corp. The company shut down the mine at the end of August – partly because of lower gold prices, but largely because of rising costs and electricity shortages, combined with the uncertainties over the government's demand that the company "indigenize" itself by surrendering a majority stake in its mines. After two years of negotiations, New Dawn was unable to satisfy the government and could not predict when it might reach agreement.
"The evolving policy on indigenization now appears to be focusing on seizing 51 per cent controlling interests in foreign-controlled mines with compensation deemed to be the value of the minerals in the ground," the Canadian company said as it announced the shutdown.
"The result of all of these adverse factors is that there is a significant and growing risk that actions more severe than steps taken so far or currently envisaged may be required, including the temporary or permanent closure of other of the company's mining operations in Zimbabwe."
While mining companies struggle to cope, Zimbabwe's manufacturing sector is in crisis, operating at less than 40 per cent of its capacity. Even the small business sector is under pressure. The government has ordered that all foreign shopkeepers must surrender their retail outlets to Zimbabwean control by the end of this month.
A recent report by Human Rights Watch documented the collapse of water and sanitation services in Zimbabwe's capital, Harare. The report warned of the danger of another cholera outbreak like the one that killed 4,000 people in 2008. "In many communities there is no water for drinking or bathing, there is sewage in the streets, there is diarrhea and typhoid and the threat of another cholera epidemic," the human rights group said. "Harare's water and sanitation system has been destroyed by decades of neglect and by ongoing mismanagement and corruption."
Meanwhile, the inner circle around Mr. Mugabe has become fabulously wealthy. A recent divorce case involving Mr. Mugabe's cousin, Phillip Chiyangwa, revealed the vast fortune that he had accumulated, much of it reportedly from farmland and businesses seized by the ruling party.
The divorce case showed that Mr. Chiyangwa owns nearly $300-million (U.S.) in assets from 40 companies, a fleet of luxury vehicles, and dozens of mansions, villas and other properties. His wife Elizabeth, in court papers for the divorce proceedings, said she was "accustomed to a life of unreserved flamboyance" and a standard of living far higher than most of Zimbabwean society "if not the entire African society."
Don't expect this outrageous wealth to lead to a revolt against Mr. Mugabe. While his vice-president, Ms. Mujuru, may have positioned herself as his likely successor, she should not get too comfortable. Her boss has long exploited the tactics of divde-and-conquer to keep the ruling party's factions in balance. By playing the factions and candidates against each other, he could maintain his power for years to come.
Geoffrey York