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u.s. election 2016

Donald Trump, shown at an April 17 rally in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., vows to ‘make America great again.’EDUARDO MUNOZ/Reuters

January will mark the 100th anniversary of the Zimmermann Telegram, the infamous coded message from the German high command to Mexico that tried to recruit that country as an ally in the First World War. The kind invitation was turned down by Mexico, which didn't fancy its odds in a war against the mighty United States. But the episode would have modern-day relevance if Donald Trump takes the White House and launches his promised crusade against Mexico.

Which country would replace the United States as Mexico's new ally? Who, in effect, would offer Mexico a new version of the Zimmermann Telegram?

The telegram is a curious but important footnote to the First World War. In early 1917, the Americans were still officially neutral in the war, though the Germans feared they would soon enter on the side of the French and the British, all the more so since German submarines were about to attack all merchant shipping destined to Britain.

In January of that year, Arthur Zimmermann, the German foreign minister, sent a message to the German minister to Mexico, which was conveyed to the Mexican president: Become an ally of Germany, receive German logistical and financial help, attack the United States and take back some of the territories, including Texas, that had been lost in 1848 in the Mexican-American War. The message was intercepted and decoded by the British and went public in March. It helped to sway American opinion against the Germans and, a month later, the United States had entered the war against Germany.

Mr. Trump and Mexico have been engaged in a war of words for months. Mr. Trump wants to build a permanent wall along the U.S.-Mexico border (a fence already exists along some parts of the border). He wants the millions of illegal Mexican immigrants in the United States rounded up and sent home, which would be a disaster for the Mexican economy; Forbes magazine recently reported that Mexicans in the United States in 2015 wired almost $25-billion (U.S.) in remittances to family members in Mexico. That's more than Mexico earned in oil revenue.

On top of all this, Mr. Trump has called NAFTA – the North American free-trade agreement – "a disaster" and wants to shred or renegotiate it. Mexico (as well as Canada) have used NAFTA to increase greatly their exports to the United States.

The Mexicans are terrified of a Trump victory in the November election. Former Mexican president Vicente Fox has used TV interviews to say "I'm not going to pay for the [expletive] wall," and has called Mr. Trump "the hated gringo" and "the ugly American."

While the chances of Mr. Trump making good on all his anti-Mexico threats are slim were he to win, there is no doubt relations and trade between the two countries would suffer. At that point, various countries might offer their trade and investment support to Mexico, triggering a new geopolitical game in America's own backyard. There is no way the Americans would tolerate, say, Russian fighter-jet exports to Mexico. But you can bet China would welcome the opportunity to fill any American void in Mexico, as China has done in Africa when American and European business interests have retreated.

The relationship between China and Mexico, until recently, has traditionally been one of rivals, not friends. Both have used low currencies and cheap labour to penetrate the American market for everything from electrical machinery to plastics. Protected and encouraged by NAFTA, Mexico had enormous advantages at first, becoming the United States's third-largest trading partner in goods (which it still is). Lately, China has been coming on strong, especially in the export of car parts, which had been Mexico's strength. Since China entered the World Trade Organization in the early part of the past decade, Mexico's export market in the United States has lost a lot of ground to China's.

Lately, there are signs of co-operation between China and Mexico. Under Mexican President Enrique Pena Nieto, China is being invited to bid on the infrastructure projects that Mexico so desperately needs. Three years ago, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Mexico and signed a series of trade and energy agreements with his Mexican counterpart. There will be more (a deal that would have seen China build a high-speed train in Mexico fell apart after allegations of corruption against one of the Mexican bidders).

You can bet the Chinese are watching Mr. Trump's war of words with Mexico with delight. Their trade and investment version of the Zimmermann Telegram will be ready to go if Mr. Trump becomes president and China's foothold in the Americas will get stronger at U.S. expense.

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