New polls suggest U.S. election race in dead heat

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Is the United States in for another squeaker presidential election akin to Bush vs. Gore in 2000?

A slew of recent polls and analyses suggests that could be case with President Barack Obama's approval rating consistently stuck below the critical 50 per cent mark and presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney rapidly shedding the negative baggage accumulated during a nasty primary season that dragged him far to the right.

Even Democratic pollster Peter Hart, one half of the bipartisan team that puts together the monthly Wall Street Journal-NBC News poll, now puts Mr. Obama's chances of re-election "at no better than 50-50."

According to the average of eight national polls released in the two weeks until May 23, and compiled by Real Clear Politics, Mr. Obama has a marginal 1.8 percentage point lead over Mr. Romney.

The presidential race is effectively a dead heat.

The turnaround in Mr. Romney's fortunes has stunned even his Republican allies, leading to a Wednesday headline in Politico, the U.S. capital's political newspaper, reading: "GOP discovers that Mitt Romney could win."

Of course, the national polls are of secondary importance, since the election will be decided in fewer than 10 swing states, as each candidate aims to accumulate the required 270 electoral college votes required to claim the Oval Office.

Ohio, Florida and Virginia are the most hotly contested states and a NBC-Marist poll on Thursday gives Mr. Obama a modest lead in all three.

But while that survey gives Mr. Obama a four-point lead in Florida, the site of the contentious 2000 battle between George W. Bush and Al Gore that made presidential history, a Quinnipiac poll on Wednesday put Mr. Romney ahead by six percentage points in the sun-drenched state.

The early allocation of advertising dollars by both candidates, along with the Super PACs supporting them, suggests a record amount of money will be spent to sway a small number of swing voters in about half a dozen bellwether states. Overall, campaign spending on the presidential race is expected to reach (U.S.) $2.5-billion.

"Never before will so much money be spent by so many to persuade so few," Mr. Hart told the Wall Street Journal on Wednesday.

However, rather than recruiting new supporters, both presidential candidates will likely spend more time and money attempting to maximize turn-out among the voters who already lean their way.

Brookings Institution senior fellow William Galston predicts that 2012 will be a "classic mobilization election" resembling the 2004 race between Mr. Bush and Democrat John Kerry.

With less than six months to go, Mr. Galston, a former policy adviser in the administration of Democrat Bill Clinton, highlights a number of "yellow lights" flashing for Mr. Obama.

An April Quinnipiac poll, for instance, found that 49 per cent of respondents said Mr. Obama does not deserve to be re-elected. "And despite some recent improvement, key parts of the Democratic base remain less excited about the 2012 contest than their Republican counterparts."

What's more, Mr. Obama's overall approval rating is dragged down by voters' dissatisfaction with his handling of the economy. He gets stellar marks for his management of foreign policy and national security, but he gets a failing grade on economic growth, unemployment and the federal deficit. And those economic issues are overwhelmingly the top priorities of the electorate.

A Wednesday Bloomberg News analysis, however, gives the Obama campaign reason for hope in the three most critical swing states.

The unemployment rate in Ohio has fallen to 7.4 per cent, compared to a national rate of 8.1 per cent, as auto and steel plants boost production and exploration for shale gas drives an energy boom in the state.

Virginia has benefited from its nearly recession-proof defence industry and the state's unemployment rate is a healthy 5.6 per cent. Even Florida's jobless rate has come down from a recession peak of 11.4 per cent to a current level of 8.7 per cent.