Skip to main content
opinion

Bob Rae teaches at the University of Toronto and is the author of What's Happened to Politics?

-----------------------------

With the Republican and Democratic conventions finished, those of us living in the North American attic can reflect on all the noise coming from downstairs.

Donald Trump has an extraordinary ability to put himself at the centre of attention, and to say whatever he thinks will grab a headline. The Republican Party used to be about free trade, stronger security through international alliances such as NATO, and a keen sense of the need for leadership in the face of aggressive behaviour from countries such as, say, Russia. Now it is a party about nationalism, "America first," nativism, mindless populism, protectionism, and common cause with countries with authoritarian leaders such as, say, Russia.

RELATED: The desperate explanations for the rise of Donald Trump

Mr. Trump has turned U.S. politics on its head. For the longest time, pundits and pollsters, the wise and the worthy who dominate the columns of The New York Times and The Washington Post, said that he could never succeed, that he was too bombastic, unreliable, and extreme to win the Republican nomination. Now the same people are saying the same about the election.

We repeatedly hear that he is "unqualified" to be president. But is it possible that there's enough fear, hatred, insecurity and anger for him to win? We won't know the answer until November. But we should stop looking for certainty, and focus on the substance and consequences of the campaigns each party and leader will run.

Politics has always been more about emotion than intellect, and in the age of celebrity, Mr. Trump would be just one more loud-mouthed boor the world would have to put up with. While a Trump presidency is not unimaginable, it would set the world back decades. He would try to upset a lot of apple carts, and we could only hope that he wouldn't start a third world war. But he speaks to an insecurity and anger that is deep in the world right now, and his election could be followed by others with a similar result.

RELATED: Through the looking glass: the many faces of Trump and his fans

Is he a "dangerous demagogue" as described by Michael Bloomberg? Of course he is. Are there parallels between the Trump movement and the rise of fascist and populist parties in the past 80 years? Yes, and this should alert us to how important it is that he be defeated. There can be no room for complacency in this fight. He's not just "unqualified" – he is unleashing forces of hatred, racism and blind ignorance that threaten the survival of the planet.

The rise of Barack Obama, like that of Justin Trudeau in Canada, was about harnessing charisma, eloquence, charm, openness, humour and, yes, celebrity, to a more progressive and open approach to life and politics. The election of both depended on a single phenomenon: voter turnout. Citizens whose interest had been suppressed by their negative impression of the political process were sufficiently aroused to vote. The most important part of President Obama's speech at the Democratic convention was his statement that "politics is not a spectator sport." When the crowd booed his mention of Mr. Trump's name, he rightly said, "Don't boo – vote." As it was for Mr. Trudeau's team in Canada, Mr. Obama's success depended on his ability to expand the voting universe.

RELATED: Trump's true believers: How he's gone farther than Europe's far right, and who got him there

Hillary Clinton's challenge will be to do the same, which is why Mr. Trump's campaign depends on the personal attacks and ridicule at which he excels. Like every conservative leader in the Western world, he wants to shrink the political universe; he hopes that by reinforcing the viciously false stereotypes that "the system is rigged" and "crooked Hillary" is a lying careerist, she won't be able to mobilize the base the way Mr. Obama did.

It won't be enough for her to attack Mr. Trump. She has to emerge as a more emotional, real person, and grasp that politics is not about the best pile of policies, it's about mobilizing support for an idea and cause that has more resonance than the bile that Mr. Trump's success depends on. Much depends on her ability to do this. We saw at the Democratic convention an impressive array of speakers with a huge capacity for eloquence. Their names are not on the ballot. Ms. Clinton will have to do the heaviest lifting. She did well in her nomination acceptance speech, and got off some great lines, but it will have be sustained. If it is, she will win.

Ms. Clinton has shown more fortitude than almost anyone in public life. She has endured ridicule, public humiliation, character assassination, and a neverending series of lies and smears. Who would true valour see, let him come hither. She is smart and she is tough. There is no comparison between her and Mr. Trump. The hopes of the significant majority of world opinion are with her.

Canadians should not be deluded, however, into thinking that a Clinton presidency would be the answer to all our problems. If she wins, she will be leading a country that is more protectionist, more fearful of change, and more cantankerous than ever. There is no U.S. "open economy" party in the running, and we are America's closest trading partner. But let us hope that Prime Minister Trudeau will be tackling difficult issues with President Clinton rather than with the most dangerous man in America.

Interact with The Globe