The good news is that President Donald Trump is not fomenting a war with China, and is not tearing up the basis of Beijing's relationship with Washington – at least not this week. The not so good news is that it's harder than ever to tell what the Trump administration really means, and what is just bluster.
In early December, Mr. Trump had a phone call with President Tsai Ing-wen of Taiwan. That call implicitly questioned the One China policy. And then Mr. Trump explicitly questioned it, saying, "I don't know why we have to be bound by a 'one China' policy unless we make a deal with China having to do with other things, including trade."
But now, after a phone call on Friday with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, the White House says that "President Trump agreed at the request of President Xi to honour our 'One China' policy."
The result apparently takes the China-U.S. understanding back to where it was two months ago, but with one new wrinkle: Mr. Trump, a President obsessed with looking strong, now looks weak. He abruptly made an explosive threat, and has now just as abruptly withdrawn it. In return for what?
It looks like a humiliating climbdown, and an entirely unnecessary one, because there was no need to climb up anywhere in the first place.
U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson appears to have been one of the people who persuaded Mr. Trump to make the required diplomatic gesture, along with Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.
The administration also appears to be lowering the temperature in the South China Sea. During his confirmation hearings, Mr. Tillerson had spoken about China's island-building campaign in disputed waters, seemingly suggesting a possible blockade of those islands by the U.S. Since then, Mr. Mattis has made soothing diplomatic noises, saying, "There is no need right now at this time for military manoeuvres."
Mr. Trump is in the habit of blustering. But as we enter Week Four of his administration, he also seems to be willing to reverse course – maybe, on second thought, torture isn't such a great idea; maybe Israel shouldn't be given carte blanche on settlements; maybe there's no upside to picking this particular fight with China.
Maybe a 70-year-old President can learn. Maybe.