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opinion

It's to B.C. Premier Gordon Campbell's credit that, unlike Quebec's Jean Charest, he did not precipitate an early election to get the vote out of the way before the recession hit home. Instead - and in marked contrast to Prime Minister Stephen Harper - Mr. Campbell adhered to his law setting the election for May. But that's where credit for respecting his word, and for respecting voters, ends.

While Mr. Charest faced the additional challenge of staggering losses by Quebec's pension fund, Mr. Campbell had the simpler task of hiding the true magnitude of the budgetary deficit, and the actions required to redress it. To that end, he campaigned on the basis of fiscal forecasts that were already out of date and conveniently not updated until after the vote.

As in Quebec, the Official Opposition was skeptical. However, rather than making it an issue, NDP Leader Carole James assisted Mr. Campbell's deception by basing her election platform on his government's forecast.

Had she chosen instead to focus on the deficit, Ms. James could have forced Mr. Campbell to rule out any tax increase. However, that would have meant her dropping a platform filled with new and enhanced services, and explaining how the NDP would restore fiscal fitness.

Now, the opposition is on the attack, which is not surprising - the GST, loved by economists and hated by voters, has always provided fertile ground for political opportunism. In Ontario, sales-tax harmonization is opposed by the Progressive Conservatives, the party of Brian Mulroney and Jim Flaherty. In B.C., opposition to harmonization has brought together an unholy alliance of the New Democrats and former Social Credit premier Bill Vander Zalm, who left office in disgrace nearly 20 years ago.

Unlike his counterparts in Quebec City and Ottawa, Mr. Campbell is hurting. Mr. Charest dodged any difficult decisions in his postelection budget, and is now at record highs in the polls. Mr. Harper has ballooned the deficit, and he remains competitive with the Liberals. Mr. Campbell, by coming clean on the revenue and expenditure measures necessary to deal with the deficit, has taken a sharp hit in the polls.

The Premier and his Finance Minister, Colin Hansen, insist that tax harmonization was not on their radar screens before the election, and that they had no choice once Ontario decided to go forward. Reporters and commentators have pointed out, however, that Ontario Premier Dalton McGuinty made his decision before the B.C. election. In that case, one has to wonder why those who covered the campaign did not try to pin Mr. Campbell down on the weasel words sent by his officials to the Canadian Restaurant and Foodservices Association: "A harmonized GST is not something that is contemplated in the B.C. Liberal platform."

Mr. Campbell says he was elected to provide strong economic management, and he may yet prevail. Ms. James has not gone up in the polls as he's gone down, making a challenge to her leadership likely. The economy will recover, and the Liberals should be able to reduce the sales tax before the next election, thereby contrasting themselves with the "tax-and-spend socialists." And, if all else fails, Mr. Campbell could step aside for a new leader - bowing out with a legacy of three consecutive election victories, and having done the right thing to strengthen the provincial and national economies.

Meanwhile, at the federal level, B.C.'s Conservative MPs are distancing themselves from their government's role in the harmonization decision. And they are somewhat insulated by Mr. Harper's decision to reduce the GST by two points - not to speak of his stated position that there's no such thing as a good tax.

The Liberals are not well positioned to wreak much mischief, having harmonized with three of the Atlantic provinces when in office, and with their Liberal cousins in Ontario now taking the plunge. And then there's the small matter that former prime minister Jean Chrétien, instead of abolishing the GST, used its bounteous revenues to restore Canada's public finances. As for the NDP, while federal leader Jack Layton may be tempted to join with Ms. James, it's unclear how much longer Manitoba's New Democratic government can withstand the competitive pressures to harmonize. Nor would it be forgotten in B.C. that the federal NDP has repeatedly criticized Mr. Harper for reducing the GST.

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