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opinion

Yves Boisvert is a columnist for La Presse.

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During Suicide Prevention Week last year, it took Pierre Karl Péladeau some courage to speak publicly about the loss of his mother, who killed herself when he was 14. His father, media mogul Pierre Péladeau, was mostly absent and the young Péladeau was raised in what he lovingly calls his "adoptive" family, the Laframboise family.

Now in the midst of a bitter divorce, possibly at risk of losing free access to his two young children, people close to the former Parti Québécois leader can testify that the "family reasons" given for his tearful resignation were no subterfuge for a political failure. They ring terribly true, as one could see on Monday, when Mr. Péladeau appeared as we have never seen him before: wounded, defeated, in crisis.

Three days later, if people at the PQ take a step back and look more broadly, they might realize that two years after a crushing electoral defeat, their party is also wounded and in crisis. But there's no time for political introspection. The heat is on.

The party needs a new leader, its third in three years, and quickly. The classic divide between "hard-liners" and "realists" will resurface. The same old endless debate will tear apart PQ members: Should they go all-out for independence and a referendum? Or sell "good government" while waiting for the "winning conditions"?

Mr. Péladeau was popular among party faithful for several reasons. First, because he made the promise they wanted to hear: We're not in the business of running a province, we're here to found a country. Second, as a major Quebec businessman, he embodied financial success and economic credibility.

It was quite astonishing to see former union leaders and left-leaning party members embrace his candidacy. He was the kind of person the party always failed to attract. A providential man. A sign, maybe! With his strong leadership, things would be possible again …

The latest CROP opinion poll, however, showed the PQ at 26 per cent, just one point over its 2014, historically disastrous election result. And just one point ahead of the "nationalist but not indépendantiste" Coalition Avenir Québec. Now some are saying that a less abrasive leader, or a younger one, or a true social democrat, would be best to take the PQ helm.

There is only so much one person can do, however, to reverse sociological trends. Support for Quebec independence is not dead and will not disappear. But it has been stagnant at around 35 per cent for quite a while.

More importantly, for the first time in the party's 47 years, independence is more popular among people who are 55 and older, according to a CROP poll last fall. Most people in the 18-to-34 age group (70 per cent) would vote No in a referendum, the survey found. This individualist, world-conscious "No Generation" is the one most likely to define themselves as Quebeckers first, but also the most likely to say that Canada is part of their identity.

Some say the PQ should imitate the Scottish National Party. Or the Catalonia secessionists. Others dream of a "great coalition," bringing back to the PQ the left-leaning Québec Solidaire.

The reality is that sovereignty is not at the top of the Quebec political agenda any more. And nobody in the PQ knows how to change that.

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