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A woman carries purchases during the Christmas shopping season in Toronto.

Black Friday, the annual shopping bonanza that's become as much a part of American Thanksgiving as pumpkin pie, is expected to gobble up more Canadian dollars this year as the retail event continues to creep north.

Despite Canadian cravings for deep discounts, analysts say the deals won't draw comparable crowds anywhere near the size of those hunting for bargains in the United States.

At least not yet, said Ryan Brain, who leads Deloitte's consumer business practice in Canada.

"We did see a surge in Black Friday sales last year in Canada, which I admit was a bit of a surprise. I didn't think the novelty would take off here," Brain said. "But we may see more of that energy this year, and I'd attribute that to the halo effect of U.S. retailers training Canadian consumers to pick up on the phenomenon."

South of the border, investors were being warned to temper their expectations.

In the lead-up to the fourth-quarter (Q4) holiday shopping season, U.S. retailers are lowering sales projections, according to Thomson Reuters Alpha Now. To date, only four retailers issued positive earnings guidance, with 17 companies giving negative guidance.

Even so, Alpha Now's latest outlook for Q4 projects a 1.8-per-cent increase in sales at stores that were open for at least one year, compared with last year's very weak 0.7-per-cent gain.

DIG360, a Vancouver retail consultancy, found that 27 per cent of adult Canadians polled last year said they purchased Black Friday sales items.

"We do think it's going to go up again this year, in part because we're getting more used to it," DIG360 founder David Ian Gray said.

But any increase in Canadian retail sales is likely to be nominal, he added.

New figures from Statistics Canada showed retail sales totalled $41-billion in the month of November. That amounts to roughly a 1-per-cent increase year over year, said John Fanous, VP of shopper marketing at popular bargains website RedFlagDeals.com.

Between midnight and 1 a.m. last Black Friday, Wal-Mart Canada reportedly logged more than 4,000 customer orders. This year, spokesman Alex Roberton said, the retailer expects to double last year's sales projections as well as its number of online customers.

The term "Black Friday" has also become more prominent in recent years.

RedFlagDeals.com has tracked Black Friday discounts at Canadian retailers since 2007, when only two deals were featured. By 2012, Black Friday was promoted in 180 deals.

"And this year, we expect that number to be closer to 400 to 500 deals," Fanous said, adding that last "Black Friday eve" saw 10,600 Canadians logging onto the site every minute.

Aside from the U.S. holiday's apparent influence on how much Canadians are spending in November, Deloitte's 2014 Holiday Retail Outlook suggests Black Friday could also signal an official launch to Canada's holiday shopping season.

Deloitte reported that Canadians are shopping earlier. Nearly two out of five shoppers, or about 39 per cent, have already begun shopping or will do so before Black Friday.

It's a trend Fanous has noticed as well.

"Black Friday and Cyber Monday have definitely moved the front bookend a little earlier on in the shopping season," he said.

Enticing sales could be changing Canadians' behaviours in another way, too.

IPG Mediabrands, part of the marketing agency Interpublic Group, anticipates a "Slack Friday" event, with Canadian workers taking days off or calling in sick on Nov. 28 or Cyber Monday to make the most of door-buster sales. That adds up to 5.1 million lost work days.

Some retail analysts also believe a frigid blast of winter carried over by a polar vortex into the East Coast could drive up retail sales as consumers seek out warm boots and knit-wear to help them brave the weather.

IPG Mediabrands predicts that nearly half of Canadians (49 per cent) will partake in either Black Friday or Cyber Monday.

Toronto-area malls such as Scarborough Town Centre and Yorkdale will open with extended hours to accommodate Black Friday sales on Nov. 28.

Last year, according to Oxford Properties, Black Friday attracted more than 100,000 shoppers and it was the second-busiest day of the year for Scarborough Town Centre, behind Boxing Day.


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This content was produced by The Globe and Mail's advertising department, in consultation with Thomson Reuters.  The Globe's editorial department was not involved in its creation.

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