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By mid-century, the lack of family-sized condominiums in the Toronto area may prove as effective a birth control measure as China's one-child policy.

Granted, the dramatic shortage of affordable three-bedroom suites may not replace the pill, but it is certain to make people think twice about where they are going to raise more than a single child.

The simple fact is that since 1981, the number of three-bedroom condominiums built has been negligible. Ones, one-and-dens, twos and two-and-dens, yes, and in great numbers, but three-bedroom units? Forget it.

"The number of three-bedroom units built since we started tracking condos in 1981 has been much less than 1 per cent of the 166,273 total suites built," says Jane Renwick, executive vice-president of Urbanation Inc. "It has represented a ridiculously small percentage. In some submarkets, it is as low as 0.3 per cent and I don't think it ever goes much higher than 0.8 per cent."

The reason is simple, say market watchers and builders alike: Little or no demand.

"The simple fact is that couples still think the best place to raise children is the way they were probably raised — in a single-family home or a townhouse with a backyard and maybe a basketball hoop in the driveway," says Barry Lyon of N. Barry Lyon Consulting Ltd. "It is a distinctly North American point of view on life and it has yet to change."

But change it will, for change it must, Ms. Renwick says.

"Concrete lasts 200 years, so how will this situation change the face of the city 50 or 100 years down the road?"

It is a rhetorical question. The boom in condos and the shrinking availability of land for detached houses in suburban areas means the Toronto area will have a huge stock of homes suited for singles, couples or families with just one child. Any family unit larger than that will have to double up on bedrooms.

And that is only one face of Toronto's future. Today's condo projects are geared to providing ultimate lifestyles for grown-ups; kid-friendly buildings are nearly non-existent.

"If families of the future are going to live in high-rise condo projects then they will need places on each floor to play; they will need outdoor recreation areas and they will need all those important small touches like light switches children can reach and elevator-floor buttons that are within range of short arms," Mr. Lyon says.

While the city of Toronto is pressuring developers to include family-suitable suites in their projects — as much as 10 per cent of total numbers — the builders are very reluctant to do anything larger than two-bedrooms and a den.

"If you offer three-bedroom suites, they are always the last ones to sell," says Mazyar Mortazavi of TAS DesignBuild. "They eventually find a buyer but the price you have to charge puts them nearly in the same market as luxury suites."

In short, if you build three-bedroom units, look for people with deep pockets. Prices are almost certain to start at $500,000 for anything bigger than 1,100 square feet.

TAS has included three-bedroom units in past projects such as DIA in the Yonge Street and Finch Avenue area and at M5V just south of King Street, east of Spadina Avenue. It is currently offering an as yet undecided number at Giraffe, where Bloor and Dundas streets meet in the west end.

"They are definitely not starter homes," he says. "They appeal mainly to those from Europe and the Middle East where apartment living is the norm."

Aspen Ridge Homes has taken a leap of faith at its new Scenic project on the south side of Eglinton Avenue just west of Leslie Street. Scenic will include a pair of high-rise towers with a total of 360 suites. Of that total, 15 will be three-bedroom suites starting at $536,000.

"It is the first time we have tried them," says Christene DeGasperis, the company's director of sales and marketing. "Our consultants say there is a market in the neighbourhood, mainly among new Canadians.

"Green Park did a project nearby and offered three-bedroom suites; they did well so we have reason to believe these will sell also."

The Eglinton and Leslie and Dundas and Bloor neighbourhoods are anomalies, says Jim Ritchie, senior vice-president sales and marketing at Tridel Corp.

"There are areas of the city where you can justify building a limited number of three-bedroom suites, but by and large the demand is just not there," he says.

"Because you need at least 1,100 square feet for a three bedroom, you have to charge something in excess of half a million dollars and the sweet spot in the market is between $250,000 and $400,000. Anything above that means a much greater risk."

Can developers ever hope to meet the city's goal of at least 10 per cent family suites in new buildings in today's market climate and with today's costs?

"If they are talking three-bedroom suites, then no way," Mr. Ritchie says. "The market is just not there right now."