CAROLYNNE WHEELER
BEIJING — Special to The Globe and Mail Published on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2009 12:00AM EDT Last updated on Wednesday, Nov. 11, 2009 6:45PM EST
The colourful model of a new passenger jet displayed at the Hong Kong air show was a show-stopping crowd pleaser. Not for its looks - though sleek, it was hardly ground breaking - but for what it represents: a new direction for China's fledgling aerospace industry. Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China (Comac) surprised industry experts at last month's Asian Aerospace show by unveiling details of its large-body C919 jetliner, including plans to have it in the air by 2014.
The state-backed foray into large passenger aircraft could result in China's first serious challenge to the foreign manufacturers that now dominate what is the fastest-growing aviation market in the world. A recent report predicted China will need nearly 4,000 new planes in the next two decades.
"It was a bit of a bombshell, the C919," said Nick Cunningham, aerospace analyst for London-based Evolution Securities.
He called the aircraft's unveiling a "watershed" moment for the industry, particularly given China's short history in aircraft manufacturing.
"What's surprising is how aggressive and ambitious this model is," he said. "You're kind of asking yourself to invent everything all at one time. It's very audacious."
The single-aisle plane will carry up to 170 passengers and will be cheaper to operate than its competitors, the Airbus 320 and Boeing 737, primarily by using up to 15 per cent less fuel, its designers said.
The display model, complete with jaunty lime-green and sky-blue accents, shows an aircraft roughly the size of Airbus's A320, with a wingspan of 35 metres and a length of 39 metres.
"I think the domestic Chinese companies have the capacity to design and produce world-class planes," said Huang Jun, a professor in the flight vehicle design department at Beihang University, Beijing's academy of aeronautics and astronautics.
"They are in an initial stage, so it's impossible for them to compete with Airbus or Boeing. But I also believe they can become competitive in 10 or 20 years time."
These are very early days for the C919: Comac only began building the nose of the plane on Sept. 1, and suppliers for its engines and support systems have not yet been chosen.
But it is a moment of great excitement for the Chinese industry, whose only fully homegrown, commercial aircraft, the ARJ21, has been likened to the DC-9 of 30 years ago. (Plagued by delays, the ARJ21 is now in the certification process and is expected to launch late next year, with China's Kunpeng Airlines its first commercial client.)
The state-owned Aviation Industry Corp. of China, (Avic) which is producing the ARJ21, recently predicted the country will need 3,796 new passenger planes by 2028 to keep up with domestic demand for air travel, adding to its present fleet of 1,191.
Foreign aircraft makers, who have seen sales slump and orders put on hold in the recession, are keenly interested in the Chinese market.
Airbus, hoping to capitalize on China's keen desire to build its own planes, earlier this summer saw its first entirely made-in-China A320 roll off an assembly line in Tianjin.
Canadian manufacturer Bombardier Inc.'s aerospace division has struggled to find a foothold, though the company has a long-term strategic co-operation agreement with Avic and has now introduced its new C Series aircraft, which it hopes will find a niche in the demand for smaller capacity passenger planes.
"We made some mistakes three years ago; China gave us some opportunity for co-operation and we refused. But now we are on the right track," said Zhang Jianwei, Bombardier China's president. "In [our] aerospace [division], the orders will come."
As China's economy booms, however, its domestic manufacturers, with heavy state backing, will step up efforts to take on market leaders Airbus and Boeing.
"The growth rate of the domestic aircraft market is twice that of China's economic growth rate. There is a huge potential market for domestic aircraft companies both at home and abroad," Prof. Jun said.
That incentive - coupled with a national pride - are the dual forces driving Chinese manufacturers, he said. "Having a designed-and-made-in-China airplane is definitely an important goal for the country. As China's economy is witnessing a great boom, I think all Chinese people want the country to develop its own airline industry," Prof. Jun said.
"Whenever I take an airplane made either by Airbus or Boeing, I always feel determined to develop our national airline industry," he added. "It's out of patriotism."
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By the numbers
3,796
Predicted number of new passenger planes China will need by 2028.
1,191
Current size of domestic fleet.
2014
Year by which Commercial Aircraft Corp. of China aims to have its new C919 plane up and flying.
Up to 15%
Amount of the reduction in fuel the C919 will use, compared with the Airbus 320 and Boeing 737, according to its designers.
35 metres
Wingspan of C919.
170
Estimated passenger load of C919.
Carolynne Wheeler
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