Grant Isaac, when he left, never thought he'd be back.
Hailing from a family of sports broadcasters out of Regina, Mr. Isaac studied economics at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon. After finishing his masters, he and his wife moved to England, where Mr. Isaac did his PhD at the London School of Economics. A world of opportunity was at hand.
But they chose, in 2000, to return. Sensing change, sensing possibility, sensing something percolating, the spirits of their forebears, pioneers who made a life out of a hard land, in the middle of nowhere.
“Everything just seemed to be pointing in the direction of change,” Mr. Isaac remembered of the emerging ambitions of his home province this week over a coffee in Saskatoon.
Now the young dean of the Edwards School of Business at the university – named after Murray Edwards, the Regina-born, Calgary-based energy billionaire – Mr. Isaac has a wide vantage from which to watch Saskatchewan enjoy a boom. And, yes, for some locals, with memories of good times that too often turned sour so quickly, there is the dead weight of fear – can it really last?
But the boom, Mr. Isaac said, hasn't even really started.
“People are talking about it in the present tense – but it's not even here yet,” Mr. Isaac said. “The boom is still coming.”
This province, with a population only a bit higher than it was in the 1920s, is enjoying the best times of its century-long history, riding multiple booms in commodity prices. Government, once so central to the economy, has stepped back and instead embraced a more business-friendly agenda, including corporate tax cuts.
Predicted to lead Canada in economic growth this year, Saskatchewan is a land of food and fuel – feeding North America, and the world. It is the country's second-largest oil producer. It leads the world in uranium. And its grains are more valuable than ever.
“The world needs lots of what we have,” Mr. Isaac said. “For the most part, we're in uncharted waters. And when you've gone through tough times, you learn how to develop a competitive edge.”
The long road to success – and the possibility that the real ride is just beginning – is embodied by Potash Corp. of Saskatchewan Inc., headquartered in an 11-storey downtown office building in Saskatoon. It is a modest home for the world's biggest potash producer and the fifth-most-valuable name on the Toronto Stock Exchange. Worth $58-billion – the stock has nearly tripled in the past year – Potash Corp. ranks behind only Research In Motion Ltd., EnCana Corp., Royal Bank of Canada and Manulife Financial in market capitalization.
Bigger than every energy company but one. Bigger than every financial services company but two.
Potash?
Potash, the commodity, not the company, lies below much of southern Saskatchewan. First discovered in the 1940s when people were drilling for oil, it is mined to produce a sizable fraction of the world's fertilizer.
Potash strengthens plant roots, improving their ability to retain water, making them hardier and generating more bushels per hectare. It is fuel for food: Corn, wheat, soybeans.
And those foods, like potash and oil, are at record prices, buoyed primarily by global demand for food coming from richer and ever-growing populations, as well as the added demand from biofuels and the spread of meat eating, as the new middle classes in China and other emerging economies add steak to their plates.
Saskatchewan is the Saudi Arabia of potash, producer of a quarter of the world's supply. And like oil, potash has never been more profitable. Bill Doyle, chief executive officer of Potash, was feted as “the fertilizer king” on CNBC earlier this year and delivers a tempered but powerfully bullish message to investors: Profits are soaring.
