Detroit Three rev up to plead case

Auto makers return to Washington with blueprint for survival to make their case for government money

GREG KEENAN

From Tuesday's Globe and Mail

Ford Motor Co. provided one sign yesterday of how seriously the crisis is hitting Detroit as it announced plans to unwind one of the key deals it made in the 1990s - the purchase of Volvo Car Corp.

And today, beleaguered auto makers make another case for help from the U.S. government to stay in business.

"Given the unprecedented external challenges facing Ford and the entire industry, it is prudent for Ford to evaluate options for Volvo," Ford president and chief executive officer Alan Mulally said in a statement one day before he and his colleagues at Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. present the survival plans Washington is demanding in return for $25-billion (U.S.) in emergency financing. The options include the possible sale of the Volvo car unit, Ford said.

The restructuring of the once-mighty Detroit Three - which have fallen so far that they can no longer be called the Big Three - will move into high gear with those plans, which analysts said yesterday are almost certain to include more cost cutting, the shedding of brands that were once household words and a new focus on fuel efficiency.

"It will include just about all facets of the business," said David Cole, who heads the Center for Automotive Research, an industry think tank in Ann Arbor, Mich.

"Some product plans, cost reduction plans - labour will have to come forward with an appropriate response - executive compensation, but they have to preserve the integrity of the companies so that as the credit system improves, they can move forward and be successful in the longer term."

Chrysler and GM are in the worst shape. Both companies have warned that by early next year they may run out of the financial resources necessary to keep operating.

The most radical surgery is expected at GM, analysts said yesterday. It could include the end of the line for Pontiac, Saab and perhaps Saturn.

One industry observer suggested that Saab is almost certain to go, given that its sales are poor and it is not a core GM brand. The analyst also pointed to Saturn as perhaps easier to jettison than some of GM's other brands, in part because it was set up in the 1980s and has more recent franchise agreements.

Extricating itself from such franchise agreements at other, older divisions such as Pontiac, GMC and Buick, which are protected in different ways in almost every U.S. state, may prove to be GM's most difficult and expensive legacy cost.

Mr. Cole thinks Saturn will stay.

"You have an entirely new product array [so getting rid of it] would probably be more expensive than it would be worth," he said.

But he and others agreed it will be a simpler process for GM to disentangle itself from Pontiac. That division's dealerships are not standalone, but generally are in combination with Buick and GMC in both Canada and the United States, which means no franchises would be eliminated.

Eliminating brands is just one facet of a $40-billion (U.S.) restructuring necessary at GM, Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. analyst John Murphy said in a research note last week.

"We estimate that in order to truly right-size the business to where GM could compete with leaner and more nimble foreign auto makers, the company would need to trim more than half of its current capacity," Mr. Murphy wrote.

That Draconian step would involve shutting five of 12 passenger car assembly plants and slashing pickup truck, sport utility vehicle and crossover utility vehicle production by two-thirds.

Such closings would entail the elimination of 59,000 of the auto maker's 123,000 hourly and salaried jobs in Canada, the United States and Mexico.

The question at Chrysler is not surgery, but that auto maker's very future under private equity owner Cerberus Capital Partners LP, Mr. Cole and other analysts said.

"Chrysler is not at the leading edge of technology, it's not globally integrated, it doesn't have scale volumes and it's owned by private equity," Mr. Cole said.

"They're going to plead for whatever they need for in a bridge [loan], but at some point, the Cerberus people know they don't want to be the long-term owners of Chrysler."

Chrysler chairman Robert Nardelli said last month that a government bailout and alliances with other auto makers are essential if Chrysler is to survive.

The executives of the Detroit Three were widely criticized at congressional hearings last month when they appeared unprepared and flew down to Washington from the Motor City in private jets even though they were asking for government help.

Ford says Mr. Mulally will make tomorrow's 840-kilometre trek from Dearborn, Mich., to Washington by car. GM CEO Rick Wagoner also is considering ground travel, although the company won't say for certain how he'll get there for security reasons. A Chrysler spokeswoman says Mr. Nardelli will not go by corporate jet, but also wouldn't disclose his travel method for security reasons.

They were given until today to submit new plans, but some of the criticism remains.

U.S. House of Representatives Majority Whip Jim Clyburn of South Carolina said the CEOs should give up their jobs.

"If I had my way, all three of those guys would be in the unemployment line and I think that ought to be one of the conditions for us doing this," the Democratic congressman told reporters at a news conference.

"They need to be giving up their jobs, not just their packages."

GM (GM)

Close: $4.59, down 65¢

FORD (F)

Close: $2.55, down 14¢

*****

THE ROAD AHEAD

The Detroit Three will submit plans to the U.S. Congress today to win support for an estimated $25-billion (U.S.) in loans to deal with the gravest crisis that they have faced since the Great Depression.

Among the possible scenarios, company-by-company are:

Chrysler LLC

The No. 3 Detroit company is likely to point to three hybrid-electric vehicles and its new generation of mid-sized sedans as key vehicles for the company in the medium-term future. Chairman Robert Nardelli is also likely to point to alliances with offshore-based auto makers to build small cars and pickup trucks as a crucial strategy in some vehicle segments.

Ford Motor Co.

Ford chief executive officer Alan Mulally can outline plans to bring small cars designed in Europe to North America. More plant closings are possible, with potentially the final notice that its large-car assembly plant in St. Thomas, Ont., will close early in the new decade. Mr. Mulally could announce that the company will eliminate its Mercury brand, but analysts discount that possibility.

General Motors Corp.

Analysts are certain there will be more cost cutting at GM in the form of more plant closings or salaried job cuts. GM could tackle its bloated brand structure by eliminating one or more of its eight brands in the U.S. market. Hummer is already for sale, but Pontiac and Saturn top the list of brands that analysts believe need to be chopped. Heavy emphasis will be placed on the Chevrolet Volt, a new car designed to come out about two years from now that will have an electric motor.

Greg Keenan

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