LORI McLEOD
From Friday's Globe and Mail Published on Thursday, Dec. 04, 2008 10:04PM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 9:23PM EDT
For the past six years, it seemed all it took to sell a house was to stick a For Sale sign on the lawn and wait for the bidding war to begin. In just months, however, the rules of the game have changed. Bidding wars are over, open houses don't attract the same crowds, and homes are languishing for much longer on the market. In short, the deals aren't getting done.
In Vancouver, sales slumped by 70 per cent last month compared with the year before, and in Toronto they were down by 50 per cent.
As the market enters a deep freeze, sellers have been left wondering how the economy and the housing market have changed so much so fast.
Every year since they moved into their home in 1994, the Kaszas family fielded a handful of unsolicited offers from passersby who fell in love with their home in the Rosedale neighbourhood in Toronto.
Now the luxurious 5,000-square-foot home is on the market, but instead of the expected rush of buyers, things have been almost silent.
“I'm astounded that we haven't sold this house yet,” says homeowner Kathryn Kaszas.
“It used to be houses rarely came on the market here, and when they did they were snapped up. Now it's crazy, it seems as though every day a new [For Sale] sign pops up,” she added.
Despite a $400,000 price reduction, the $2-million home has been sitting on the market since September. Now her agent, and sister, says she's unconvinced it will sell even if the price is cut by another $500,000.
It's a scenario being played out in many parts of the country, at both the high and low ends of the market: A deep freeze in home sales, brought on by economic turmoil and the fear of buying at a time when prices could have much further to fall.
Last month in Vancouver was the weakest November for sales since 1981. Prices declined by 13 per cent from May to November. Average days on the market in Toronto rose to 41 in November from 32 last year, and prices declined by 6 per cent. In Edmonton, unit sales fell by 25 per cent in November to their lowest level since 1998, and average days on the market increased by five to 63.
Put in context, these declines compare with a record-breaking 2007, in which sales and prices soared nationwide. But the current slump shows no signs of easing in the months ahead. “I think any expectations for a near-term recovery are too optimistic,” said Benjamin Tal, economist at CIBC World Markets.
Mr. Tal believes the average home price in Canada will fall by 10 to 12 per cent from the current level before flattening out late next year.
As sales decline, many sellers are considering pulling their homes off the market, then re-listing in the spring, said Mike Clarke of Keller Williams Advantage Realty in Toronto. But with economic conditions becoming more grim, this could be a strategic error for those who need to sell, he added.
“I think there's a real danger in waiting, because globally there are a lot of signs out there that things are going to get worse,” he said.
Mr. Clarke said he's telling motivated sellers to price their homes aggressively by listing them at slightly below market value.
A willingness to lower their price was the tipping point for Rob and Carmen Lewis. By mid-November, Ms. Lewis was starting to panic. Her east Toronto bungalow, which last year would have sold in days, had been sitting on the market since September.
Every day news about the housing market and economy became more bleak, and the three offers the couple did receive fell through because the prospective buyers couldn't get financing.
Nine months pregnant at the time, Ms. Lewis said she “was starting to get panicky. My due date was approaching and I was starting to think about pulling the house off the market if it hadn't sold by December and re-listing in the spring,” she said. Instead the Lewises decided to cut their price. Originally listed at $289,000, they sold their home last week for $270,000.
The family of four are is now unhurriedly searching for a larger home in Whitby, Ont., and Ms. Lewis is enjoying being a buyer more than a seller.
Falling prices could be the impetus for buyers to come back into the market, said agent Jason Soprovich of Prudential Sussex Realty in West Vancouver. “I'd love a quick bounce and lots of people believe this will happen, but I think we're in the hibernation stage,” he said. “It's all about perceived value right now.”
One high-end home listed by Mr. Soprovich has been on the market since April 14, and the price has already been reduced. The home would have sold in three to four months last year, he said. But some well-priced properties are still selling, he added.
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