MARCUS GEE
From Monday's Globe and Mail Published on Monday, Dec. 29, 2008 8:40AM EST Last updated on Tuesday, Mar. 31, 2009 9:29PM EDT
In the rise of Asia's big powers, politics have been a side story, all but eclipsed by the drama of the Asian economic ascendance. If China was growing at near double digits, pulling hundreds of millions out of poverty in the game, who cared if it never had free elections? Chinese were freer and more prosperous than they had ever been. As long as India was following China's path to riches, what did it matter if its democratic political system was more and more dysfunctional? Indians were marching forward regardless, making their clownish political class seem almost irrelevant.
And Japan? It has been ruled by the same political party for all but 11 months for five decades. Whatever. It was stable, responsible and, despite some hard times over the last two decades, still prosperous.
But the days when Asian politics didn't seem to matter are coming to an end. All three of Asia's giants are in deep trouble. Japan, with Asia's biggest (and the world's second-biggest) economy, is already in recession as the global economic crisis crushes demand for its cars, cameras and video games. China, the marvel of the developing world, saw its exports actually shrink in November, a startling turnaround for a country that has seen nothing but growth, growth, growth for decades. India, too, is seeing its exuberant progress slow as industrial production shrinks and investors take flight.
In times like this, politics become desperately important. To avoid calamity and recover their momentum, Asia's giants need strong leaders with clear plans. So far, none are in evidence.
Japan is on its third prime minister in two years. Taro Aso was supposed to put some zing back in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party after the disappointing governments of Shinzo Abe and Yasuo Fukuda. A former businessman and foreign minister, he has an air of vigour and authority that the grey Mr. Fukuda lacked. But he has thrice put off holding an election. Japan, he claims, needs a steady hand on the helm to steer through the economic crisis. His critics counter that, with his popularity falling, he simply wants to avoid a drubbing at the polls.
His plight is a symptom of Japan's political gridlock. The LDP is factionalized and divided, holding on to power only by handing out lavish patronage to blocks of loyal voters. The main alternative, the Democratic Party of Japan, is just as divided. Many Japanese view its leader, Ichiro Ozawa, as an old warhorse with little to offer. Neither party has a coherent ideology. How, then, are they expected to grapple with a worsening recession?
China, of course, has only one party: the Communists. In recent years, that has seemed to be almost an advantage. China's leaders don't have to worry about opponents nipping at their heels. Calmly and without any fuss, they can bring in the sober, sensible policies the country needs to right itself. If only it were so simple. In fact, a country with an unelected, unaccountable leadership finds it much harder to work through problems, come up with solutions and get the public to believe in them. Discontent, bound to mount as hard times bite, shows itself in riots, protests and other forms of social discontent. We have already seen rioting at Chinese factories that have laid off workers. Expect many more as things get worse. Fearing for its survival, the ruling party may balk at making the hard decisions it will need to take to restore the country to economic health.
India has no shortage of dissenting voices. Proud of its status as the world's most populous democracy, it has a raucous political scene with a free press and many competing parties. It is gridlocked all the same. The ruling Indian National Congress, party of Nehru and Gandhi, has seen its traditional dominance fade. It lost power between 1996 and 2004 and has held power since only with the support of several minor parties, many of them leftist in outlook and opposed to any kind of sensible reform. Caste-based parties that cater to the masses of rural voters are on the rise, another blow to reforms that, at least at first, seem to benefit urban Indians most. As a result, the market-oriented reforms that began in 1991, and gave India a spurt of growth of near-Chinese magnitude over the past five years, have ground to a halt.
Each of Asia's giants faces enormous problems. Like the detritus on a beach, they are being exposed by the ebbing tide of economic growth. China still has far too much of its economy in state hands. It has next to no social welfare system.
Much of its rural population is stuck in poverty. India's public services are abysmal. Its roads and ports are a mess. More than 40 per cent of its population of 1.1 billion lives below the poverty line. Japan has an aging population and shrinking work force. Most of its companies are unproductive by Western standards.
To tackle huge problems such as these, Asia's giants need to make hard decisions. For that they need leadership. And for that they need flexible, functioning political systems. Politics is no longer an afterthought when Asia's economic future is concerned. It is the key to a prosperous future.
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