Canada's global currency star

ROMA LUCIW

Globe and Mail Update

The loonie pushed even further into record territory compared to the U.S. dollar on Friday, but with the euro tapping new highs and talk of parity in Australia, how is Canada's currency faring against others around the globe?

When measured against the greenback, the Canadian dollar has undoubtedly been this year's star performer on the world stage. The loonie has outperformed all its major peers, surging 25 per cent.

"Clearly, the Canadian dollar is on everyone's radar," said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. "But the big theme has been the weakness in the U.S. dollar. So it is a game of everyone is gaining against the U.S. dollar."

Brazil's real is in the No. 2 spot, rising 23 per cent against the U.S. dollar in 2007, according to Bloomberg data, followed by a 17 per cent rise in the Australian dollar and a 15 per cent rise in the Norwegian krone. The euro has gained 10 per cent, the British pound 6 per cent, the Swiss franc 5.5 per cent and the Japanese yen 3 per cent.

The Canadian currency has been on a tear, topping its 1957 modern-day high of $1.0614 on Wednesday, then sauntered to $1.0704 (U.S.) on Friday. The loonie may have soared 25 per cent this year against the greenback but has risen a smaller 13.5 per cent when measured against the euro, which is also forging new highs. At last check, the loonie was trading at 73.7 euro cents.

Although U.S. dollar weakness has been one of the driving forces in the global currency market, soaring oil, gold and metal prices have played a major role in boosting the so-called commodity currencies. Crude oil has been a tear, topping $96 a barrel (U.S.) this week on supply concerns, while gold topped $800 an ounce, pushing currency investors towards resource-rich countries such as Canada, Australia, New Zealand, Norway and South Africa.

Still, Mr. Gregory believes there is more to the Canadian dollar's 25 per cent runup than a weak U.S. dollar and high commodity prices. "I think it is more than just U.S. dollar weakness, which I think is accurately reflected in the price of the euro," he said. "If you parse out commodity prices, which are boosting the Australian and Norwegian currencies, you still find that the Canadian dollar has done better than expected."

Mr. Gregory said "speculative buying and momentum" are responsible for the remainder of the gains. "Those factors do not seem to be going away any time soon," he added.

Monetary policy is also playing its part in the global currency shakedown. The euro, for instance, is operating against a background of central bank tightening at the same time that the U.S. Federal Reserve is easing. Australia's central bank is also in tightening mode as is Norway's, moves that supportive their currencies.

So, are other countries fretting about the rapid movement in their national currencies?

The Australian central bank is expected to hike rates next week, leading a number of currency strategists to predict that the Aussie dollar is on track to hit par with the greenback within weeks or months.

David Powell, a currency analyst at Ideaglobal in New York, says that like Canadians, people living in the euro zone are concerned about their soaring currency. "The question hanging over their heads is whether the record high euro is going to curb global exports from Germany and the rest of the zone, rendering their economy much more fragile in the coming year."

With the U.S. central bank cutting interest rates at a time when other central banks are having to contemplate tightening, Mr. Powell does not expect that the euro is going to get a reprieve any time soon.

In the U.S., though, there is little concern about their sagging greenback, which has dropped 9 per cent so far this year when measured against the euro.

"Officially, they believe in a strong dollar policy. If the market wants the dollar to be weaker, then they think that is fine," he said, adding that the currency weakness is boosting exports at a time when the housing sector is collapsing.

So why does Canada use the U.S. dollar as its benchmark? Mr. Gregory attributes that to trade and capital flows.

"The bulk of Canadian trade is with the U.S. and the bulk of the international capital flows to and from Canada are with the U.S. so that exchange rate really dominates our thinking," he said. "For Canada, it is very much a U.S. dollar story."

What is the Canadian dollar worth in other global currencies?

1.23 Swiss francs

123 Japanese yen

0.51 of a British pound

11.43 Mexican pesos

7 South African rand

5.8 Norwegian kroner

1.55 Singapore dollars

1.15 Australian dollars

42 Indian rupees

26.3 Russian rubles

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