The airplane segment that Bombardier Inc. will enter with its new C Series plane will generate sales of 6,900 aircraft between now and 2032, the company says.
The forecast, Bombardier’s annual look at how the next 20 years will play out in the aviation business, says industry sales in the three biggest segments in which it offers planes will top $1.3-trillion during that time frame.
Those segments are business jets, regional jets and with the C Series, the 100-seat to 149-seat slice of the large commercial aircraft market.
“While demand for new aircraft orders will continue to come from established and developed markets, the growth potential in emerging markets such as China, India, Russia and Latin America is predicted to play an increasingly important role in the global aviation marketplace,” Bombardier said in a statement accompanying the forecast.
The Montreal-based airplane and train giant made the forecast on the eve of the Paris Air Show, one of two crucial events this month as its gears up the $3.4-billion C Series program. The C Series, which will seat from 100 to 160 passengers, is scheduled to make its first flight by the end of June, while analysts expect Bombardier to announce new sales for the plane at the Paris show, which begins officially on Monday.
Business aircraft, which are a key cash cow helping to finance the C Series before delivery to customers in the middle of 2014, are expected to generate industry-wide sales worth $650-million by 2032.
“While business jet orders and deliveries for 2013 are expected to be comparable to those of 2012, Bombardier forecasts that they will begin to improve in 2014 and that the industry will surpass its prior delivery peak year of 2008 by as early as 2016,” Bombardier said.
Demand for business jets is shifting toward emerging markets, the company said.
Airlines are forecast to purchase $646-million worth of commercial planes ranging in size from 20 seats to 149 seats, Bombardier said. Bombardier offerings in those segments include its Q series turboprop planes, regional jets and the C Series.
The C Series is Bombardier’s bid to move up in scale to compete with Airbus Industries and Boeing Co. in the large commercial jet segment.
Boeing said earlier this week that the world’s airplane fleet is expected to double during the next two decades, with airlines expected to purchase planes worth $4.8-trillion (U.S.). Boeing’s forecast includes the wide-bodied segments of the large commercial plane market, which includes its 787 jets and the A380 offered by Airbus.
Bombardier does not compete in the wide-bodied market.