Canada lost jobs last month. The unemployment rate inched up 1/10th of a per cent to 7.3 per cent. And the Bank of Canada warned that Canadians should expect continued weakness in the economic recovery.
It’s been a disappointing week, but there’s no need to be anxious, experts say. While the job stats and unemployment levels have high visibility, they are overall numbers that may not be relevant to your job and industry. Friday’s decline was the first drop in employment since March; in the past year, employment has grown by 1.3 per cent, or 223,000 positions. Recent figures are also showing Canada’s job growth faring better than the U.S. job market.
However, it’s only prudent to assess potential risks to your job as well as the potential for advancement in your career. Here are some barometers the experts say can give you a truer picture of what the job market holds for you:
How’s the confidence?
The monthly readings of consumers’ willingness to spend are indicators of how likely goods are to find buyers. But they’re also a measure of how confident employers are about taking on new employees and how good people feel about the prospects of landing a better job if they leave their current one, said Tom Long, executive recruiter with Russell Reynolds Associates in Toronto.
“We’re still quite busy; the uncertainty doesn’t seem to be slowing down decision making on hiring at executive levels,” he said. Recruiting is particularly strong in professional services, accounting, finance and information technology.
“But having said that, people are obviously becoming more wary. I can tell in discussions with candidates we recruit that they are factoring the risk of a slowdown into their decisions to make a move,” Mr. Long said.
“I’ve been through several cycles of slowing growth and you tend to find both client and candidates hitting the pause button at the same time.” It’s not a clear trend yet, but it’s one to watch, he said.
Are jobs still churning?
As long as there is continued movement of people within your industry, there is still opportunity, said Alan Kearns, president of Ottawa-based coaching company CareerJoy. “If the economy continues to linger, we will see a reduction in flow of people between employers. The danger signs you have to watch for are layoffs and hiring freezes,” he said. “I’ve recently seen a growth of business in outplacement of displaced executives, and that’s not a good sign,” he said.
“Another element we are paying attention to is outplacement of government employees as the federal government and provinces reduce head counts, a process that’s increased in the past few months,” Mr. Kearns said. That could reverse itself, though, if governments decide to apply economic stimulus, as government jobs are often the first to be created.
The public sector was the bright spot in Friday’s job numbers, with an increase in employment of 22,000, balancing out a loss of 20,000 positions in the private sector.
What’s your bottom line?
The fourth quarter, from October through December, is a particularly hazardous time even in a good economy, warned Warren Lundy, partner with OI Partners-Feldman Daxon Partners Inc. in Toronto.
Companies planning to make cutbacks want to book their expenses related to severance, unemployment compensation, career transition assistance and other costs in the current year, so they can start the following year more streamlined, he said. And as the heavy deck-clearing in the 2008 recession demonstrated, there can be little warning before the axe falls and even good performers might find themselves expendable.
“You may be able to correct performance-related issues if they exist, but individual employees do not have much control over their company’s financial situation and the economy,” he said.
“Layoffs and terminations usually take most people by surprise. They are generally unprepared for what to do next,” Mr. Lundy said. “Even if you think your job is secure, it’s prudent to be on the lookout for possible termination warning signs, make adjustments if you can, and be ready to move forward if a job loss occurs,” he added.
