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Cheap money sparks bubble warnings

A skyscraper under construction in Shanghai.

A skyscraper under construction in Shanghai.

As gold ascends and new towers soar into the skies of Asia, policy makers around the globe are stepping up their verbal campaign to stave off asset bubbles

Boyd Erman

From Thursday's Globe and Mail

If you're thinking about buying Russian stocks, don't.

That advice comes straight from someone who ought to know: the country's Finance Minister, Alexei Kudrin. He explicitly told investors to stay away from Russian stocks, calling the market "inflated" and "overheated" and warning that cheap money is the culprit.

As gold ascends to records and new towers soar into the skies of Asia, thanks to cheap money, policy makers around the globe are stepping up their verbal campaign to stave off asset bubbles.

World Bank president Robert Zoellick wrote in a Financial Times article yesterday that "asset bubbles could be the next fragility as the world recovers, threatening again to destroy livelihoods and trap millions more in poverty."

Even the U.S. Federal Reserve, which has been quiet on the topic, cautioned earlier in the week that easy money for too long could lead to "excessive risk-taking in financial markets," and while the Fed said the threat is "relatively low," the mere mention was enough to get markets' attention.

For markets, the question now is when words will shift to actions to slow growth in asset prices, such as raising rates or pulling back some of the cash with which central bankers have flooded the markets.

If that happens, it would be a reversal of years of global policy that saw central bankers avoid trying to influence asset prices. Even Fedchairman Ben Bernanke has said in the past that monetary policy isn't a fine enough instrument to try to deal with asset prices in specific markets.

The idea at central banks "near term is to talk tough, but eventually they will have to act tough," said Craig Wright, chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.

"They seem to all see some value in talking tough right now to support low and firmly anchored inflation expectations. The challenge will be containing inflation expectations as headline prices continue to move higher, the unemployment rate stabilizes and growth recovers."

Some analysts are calling for policy makers to begin acting right away, especially after better-looking reports on housing and employment in the U.S. in recent days.

"There is an immediate-term bubble in gold and an intermediate-term bubble in short-term U.S. Treasuries," Keith McCullough, CEO of Research Edge LLC, said in a note to clients. "Given the recent data, the Fed's policy of 'exceptional and extended' remains unsustainable and unreasonable."

Much of the concern centres on Asia, which because of currency pegs is particularly sensitive to the travails of the U.S. dollar. As the greenback falls, policy makers in countries such as China that have pegged their currencies to the greenback have to force down their currencies as well, which has the effect of juicing their export-led economies.

That, combined with low rates, is feeding speculation, some fear, as home prices rise and new buildings appear on skylines across the region.

In response, the head of the Hong Kong central bank recently stated that "with interest rates exceptionally low and with abundant liquidity around the world, Hong Kong faces the potential risk next year that asset prices may go up sharply and become increasingly disconnected from economic fundamentals."

Mr. Zoellick and others who are in the bubble-fearing camp are calling on the Group of 20 countries, now the pre-eminent global driver when it comes to managing the world's economy, to keep the concern at the top of its agenda.

"Otherwise, the solutions of 2008-09 could plant the seeds of trouble in 2010 and beyond," he said.

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