A visitor to the Frankfurt Auto Show, the biggest event of its kind, might think all is well in the car world.
Outside the vast exhibition halls, auto makers may be firing tens of thousands of workers and losing billions. But inside, the cars gleam like polished gemstones, exhibitors swill champagne and executives and engineers burble enthusiastically about the dawn of a new era: The electric car is here.
Electric mobility – e-mobility to use the new buzzword – is the auto show's theme. Dozens of electric cars were rolled out at the start of the Frankfurt show last week. Many manufacturers, big and small, announced plans for electric car production or development.
Some were ambitious. France's Renault and Japanese partner Nissan plan mass production of a family of e-cars, among them the Nissan Leaf, starting in 2011.
Some seemed little more than publicity stunts. German toy car maker Herpa wants to relaunch the Trabant, the primitive, smoke-belching brute that put millions of East Germans on the road during the Cold War, as an all-electric green machine.
The internal combustion engine, and all the woes that come with it – planet-frying carbon-dioxide emissions, urban smog, noise, burning lungs and eyes – is, apparently, on its way to the grave after more than a century of yeoman's work. The auto industry's e-car push will turbocharge innovation, employment and profits, and everyone from the laid-off factory worker in Michigan to Al Gore will approve.
And if you believe that, we've got a special price for you on a creampuff Trabant.
Hype and over-the-top PR campaigns naturally go with any auto show. Frankfurt excelled in this category. Two years ago, there was barely a mention of all-electric cars in Frankfurt; hydrogen-powered fuel cells still seemed the razzle-dazzle technology. Not even the hybrid gas-electric Toyota Prius could generate much buzz. By then it had been in production for almost a decade.
Today, hydrogen is barely mentioned and e-mobility is all the rage. E-mobility promises zero-emission cars that will drastically reduce carbon footprints and the dependency on imported oil. It will make streets clean and quiet. With their tremendous torque, electric cars can put the thrill back into motoring. They will allow the owner to sneer at his troglodyte, SUV-driving neighbour. They don't present the infrastructure problems faced by hydrogen cars because electricity grids cover most countries.
So what changed in two years to thrust e-mobility to the forefront? Nothing much, really, which is why the e-mobility rage should be treated with a healthy dose of skepticism. Adjusted for inflation, oil prices are pretty much the same today as they were in 2007. True, last year's $147 (U.S.) a barrel peak oil price scared the auto industry, and many drivers, into thinking that gasoline and diesel cars would become luxuries. But the price spike also showed that the best cure for high prices is high prices – oil has fallen by half since 2008.
Battery technology has not improved dramatically in two years, nor have battery prices fallen substantially. In other words, no technological or economic breakthrough in the e-mobility industry has been made.
Lithium-ion batteries are still the state-of-the-art gizmo and they're not quite good enough. Until something better comes along, e-cars will have inadequate range (maybe 100 kilometres, though some manufacturers claim much more) and inadequate charging times (several hours, depending on the voltage).
Electric cars are also highly expensive. GM's Chevy Volt and its European sister, the Opel Ampera, to be introduced as 2011 models, will cost about $40,000 (before tax credits). The California-built Tesla roadster, with Ferrari-like acceleration, is in production and costs more than three times as much. “Who's going to pay twice as much for no advantage over a regular car?” says Wolfgang Schneider, the vice-president of government, environmental and legal affairs for Ford of Europe.
Indeed, look under the hoods of the car makers and you will find that enthusiasm for e-mobility varies considerably. The biggest supporters are Nissan-Renault, GM, Mitsubishi and Tesla. Beyond that, the interest level drops off, though no car maker will officially admit that e-mobility is a dud or a dream for another generation. Car makers covet the “green halo” effect even if they are not pumping billions into e-mobility development. They watched in awe as a single niche model – the hybrid Prius – painted Toyota green, even though Toyota's fleet is stuffed with gas-sucking SUVs and pickup trucks. They want a piece of that lovely PR themselves.
