Wheat output will decline to 24.6 million tonnes from 29.3 million tonnes in 2014, Statistics Canada in Ottawa said Friday in a report.Chris Bolin/The Globe and Mail
Canadian wheat production will fall 16 per cent this year, more than estimated by analysts, and canola output will drop 14 per cent after adverse weather, the government said.
Wheat output will decline to 24.6 million tonnes from 29.3 million tonnes in 2014, Statistics Canada in Ottawa said Friday in a report. That trailed the 26.2 million tonnes expected by analysts, based on the average of eight estimates in a Bloomberg News survey. Canola production will fall to 13.3 million tonnes from 15.6 million tonnes. Analysts forecast 13.7 million tonnes.
Output of the grain and oilseed is set to drop to the lowest in five years. Many farmers in Alberta and Saskatchewan, the country's largest wheat and canola producers, reported "excessively dry growing conditions" at the time of the survey, the government said. Statistics Canada interviewed 13,000 farmers from July 22 to Aug. 3.
"The wheat number is certainly lowish," Ken Ball, an analyst at PI Financial in Winnipeg, said in a telephone interview. "I think most people feel the canola crop has steadily improved."
Rains in drier areas this month helped boost the outlook for wheat and canola crops, Mr. Ball said. Output of the grain may be as much as one million tonnes higher than the government's estimate, and canola production may climb an additional 500,000 tonnes, he said.
While warm, dry weather allowed farmers in many parts of Western Canada to plant early, drought conditions scorched parts of the Prairies.
Spring-wheat and canola yields across Alberta, Manitoba and Saskatchewan will decline 15 per cent from a year earlier, Winnipeg-based grain marketer CWB said after a July crop tour across the region. Parts of the Prairies that got adequate rain will have yields close to record highs, while dry conditions will curb output in others, CWB said last month.
Canada's spring-wheat output will drop 15 per cent to almost 18 million tonnes, the government data showed. Durum production will fall 14 per cent to 4.47 million tonnes.
The soybean crop will decline 3.2 per cent to 5.86 million tonnes, the first drop since 2007, the agency said.