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Is oil’s rally a blessing or curse for Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030? Add to ...

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What goes up fast must come down fast. That’s the law in the world of commodities. So is oil doomed? Oil has climbed by two-thirds in the past year, suggesting a big, ugly downturn is coming.

Don’t count on it.

Your first clue that prices are unlikely to plummet comes from Saudi Arabia, whose experiment in free-market economics is officially dead and buried in the sand. In late 2016, the Saudis decided that the gaping holes in their budget – the combined 2016 and 2015 deficits reached $175-billion (U.S.) – were unsustainable. So it persuaded OPEC, where it calls the shots, to trim production – if only slightly.

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