Tuesday, April 24, 2012 10:57 AM EDT
Jets test the economics of home ice advantage
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University. Andrew Kelly is an economics student at Carleton
University of Chicago economist Tobias Moskowitz and Sports Illustrated writer Jon Wertheim stirred up some controversy last year by claiming, in their book Scorecasting, that home team advantage is primarily due to officiating bias. “Home teams in hockey,” they argue, “get 20 per cent fewer penalties called on them and receive fewer minutes in the box per penalty.”
According to Moskowitz and Wertheim, referees are not consciously biased. Yet they are human and, “When humans are faced with enormous pressure – say, making a crucial call with a rabid crowd yelling, taunting and chanting a few feet away – it is natural to want to alleviate that pressure. By making snap-judgment calls in favor of the home team, referees, whether they consciously appreciate it or not, are relieving some of that stress.”
The Winnipeg Jets/Atlanta Thrashers offer a unique opportunity to test Moskowitz and Wertheim’s theories. Officials should face more pressure at the MTS Centre, packed full of Jets fans, than they did in the Philips Arena. If the authors are right, Winnipeg’s surprisingly strong home record this season should be due to, in part, to more favourable refereeing.
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Thursday, April 5, 2012 4:00 PM EDT
We’re all suckers when a government bets on casinos
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University
On Wednesday, I received a call from a reporter desperately trying to find a credible expert prepared to speak in favour of the OLG’s plans to build a downtown casino in Ottawa. “We need balance,” he said. Which made me wonder, does balanced journalism mean finding people to support stupid ideas?
There are two ways of approaching the economics of casinos. One is to start with the basic premise that gambling is just a form of entertainment. There is no fundamental difference between visiting a casino and going to watch a Leafs game – in both cases, the odds of winning are less than one might like.
Yet, if gambling is just another form of entertainment, what is the justification for providing it through an OLG monopoly? Most people accept that competition is the best guarantee of quality goods and service. Why should gambling be any different?
Indeed, if there was more competition in the gambling market, there is the possibility that products would emerge that harnessed people’s propensity to gamble in positive ways. For example, banks in countries around the world offer lottery linked savings accounts. Why force people to choose between saving and buying a lottery ticket when people could earn lottery tickets by saving?
A second way of approaching the economics of casinos is to start with the presumption that gambling is a potentially dangerous activity, like drinking and smoking.
Study after study, as summarized in this recent comprehensive review, finds that lottery and other gaming revenues come disproportionately from lower income people. Instant games, such as slot machines, are particularly insidious. They prey on those who seek instant gratification, and study after study shows that success in life is strongly related to the ability to defer gratification, to avoid eating the marshmallow.
This same review found no evidence that increased gaming revenues lead to better or improved public services. U.S. studies have found that the introduction of presence of state lotteries ear-marked for education is associated with lower levels of education funding. Correlation is not causation, but the experience south of the border is enough to cast doubt on the argument that higher gambling revenues will lead to better funded schools and hospitals.
Even under the present OLG regime, there are those who gamble to excess. A 2007 study by University of Lethbridge professors Robert Williams and Robert Wood found over one third of OLG revenue comes from the 5 per cent of gamers who are “problem gamblers.”
I appreciate the sacrifice that those people, and their families, are making to pay for schools and hospitals for the rest of us, but surely there must be a fairer way of raising revenue?
Wednesday, March 28, 2012 1:29 PM EDT
Why there’s never any bad news in a budget
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University
Every budget has its share of “announcables”: programs that sound good when the Minister announces them. A children’s tax credit, for example, is eminently announcable, providing ample opportunities for fine words about Canadian families, and photo opportunities with adorable children.
The actual tax savings, however, are decidedly less impressive. The federal Children’s Fitness Amount reduces taxes owing by up to $75, the Ontario Children’s Activity Credit provides tax savings of up to $50 for a typical child. I don’t mind politicians trying to buy votes. That’s what politicians do. But why would anyone let their vote be bought for as little as $75 or $50?
Thursday, March 22, 2012 6:52 AM EDT
How crowd-sourcing will spark a data revolution
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University
Governments collect the information that seems important at the time. In 1911, the Dominion Bureau of Statistics duly recorded the total tons of freight passing through Canadian canals. There are no official statistics, however, on the date the first snowdrops appeared in Edmonton that year, or the frequency of goldfinch sightings. This lack of baseline data makes it hard to know if climate change is altering birds’ migration patterns, or if the growing season is getting longer.
Yet governments have no monopoly on data. People across Canada keep detailed records of the minutiae of their daily lives - the birds at their birdfeeders or the flowers in their garden - for no reason other than personal satisfaction.
Friday, March 2, 2012 12:34 PM EST
Trouble saving money? Drop English, speak German
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University
Linguists have found that language shapes our perception of colour, our awareness of social status and hierarchy, even the way that we describe everyday objects such as bridges or forks. Now a new study by Keith Chen of Yale University argues that language has a profound impact on economic behaviour, influencing savings rates and wealth accumulation.
Professor Chen begins with the simple observation that some languages make a stronger distinction between the present and the future than others. For example, a German speaker expecting precipitation could say, “Morgen regnet es”. Literally, “It rains tomorrow.” English speakers, on the other hand, must distinguish clearly between “it is raining now” and “it will rain tomorrow.”
Tuesday, February 21, 2012 7:00 AM EST
How looming Ontario cuts will spark a ‘she-cession’
Men were hit hard by the 2008-9 economic downturn, with losses of construction jobs (98 per cent male), transport jobs (90 per cent male), and manufacturing jobs (70 per cent male). Male unemployment rose so quickly that people began to talk about a “he-cession.”
Three years on, a tenuous “he-covery” seems to be under way – male unemployment rates fell last year, and the percentage of men with jobs rose.
Now it’s the ladies’ turn. Ontario’s Drummond Report calls for deep cuts to financial, administrative and secretarial jobs throughout the public service. Strictly speaking, the report recommends cutting costs; automating, streamlining and consolidating the delivery of services. Yet administrative costs equal administrative jobs – jobs that are, 8 times out of 10, held by women.
Friday, February 10, 2012 11:19 AM EST
Should Canada's immigrants play by Australian rules?
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University, where she teaches public finance. Her recent Economy Lab posts can be found here.
Australia is like Canada, only different. There, like here, one in five people were born abroad. Like us, they have a points based immigration system, favouring skilled workers.
Yet while Canada’s recent immigrants struggle in the labour market, earning significantly less than the native born, Australia’s immigrants experience a much smaller earnings gap.
A recent paper by University of Waterloo professor Mikal Skuterud and his Australian co-author, Andrew Clarke, attempts to discover Australia’s secret.
Is it Australia’s track record of economic growth? Something about the way wages are determined in Australia? Or is it Australia’s immigration policy, a model that has captured the imagination of policy makers in Ottawa?
Thursday, February 2, 2012 1:17 PM EST
Why free Statscan data is good for all Canadians
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University, where she teaches public finance. Her recent Economy Lab posts can be found here.
Statistics Canada is now making its CANSIM data freely available on-line. A direct link to the data can be found on the Statcan home page.
The wealth of economic data provided by CANSIM will be a boon for businesses and skilled analysts -- people who know how to translate CPI numbers such as January 1949 = 10.9 and December 2011 = 136.8 into an annual inflation rate, and need detailed economic indicators for their business forecasts. Yet what does it mean for the typical Canadian?
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 12:26 AM EST
Raising the retirement age: Consider it a done deal
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University, where she teaches public finance. Her recent Economy Lab posts can be found here.
If Stephen Harper was to announce tomorrow that the age at which people will be eligible for Old Age Security was going to increase to 67 in the year 2025, who would protest?
Not the over 50s: they'll still be able to start claiming at 65 as planned.
Not many of the under 50s, either. Some under-50s won’t protest because they can’t be bothered. It’s not worth fighting to get a few thousand dollars of Old Age Security payments a couple of decades from now.
Wednesday, February 1, 2012 6:54 AM EST
Do employers care about a university’s reputation?
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University, where she teaches public finance. Her recent Economy Lab posts can be found here.
Which university should you choose if your goal is to get a job when you graduate?
The question is surprisingly difficult to answer. Raw job placement numbers confound the myriad factors that influence labour market success. For example, students from Mount Royal University graduate into the Alberta labour market, while students from University of Windsor head into the Ontario labour market. That makes more of a difference to the students’ job market prospects than the quality of their undergraduate instruction.
Frances Woolley Contributors
Frances Woolley
Frances Woolley is a professor of economics at Carleton University, where she teaches public finance. Professor Woolley is a former Secretary Treasurer of the Canadian Economics Association, and currently co-editor of Review of Economics of the Household. Her research on taxation and the family was awarded the Purvis Prize in 2001 and the John Vanderkamp Award in 1997. Professor Woolley blogs regularly on Worthwhile Canadian Initiative. She holds an undergraduate degree from Simon Fraser University, a Master’s from Queen’s and a doctorate from the London School of Economics.
