Forget the V- or U-shaped recovery.
The global economy is following the flatter trajectory of the Nike swoosh: a hard fall followed by a painfully slow climb back.
Fresh reports on the state of the job market reinforce the picture of a recovery in slow motion. Stubbornly high unemployment is plaguing Canada, the United States and Europe, threatening to undermine consumer confidence and an already tepid recovery.
And economists warn that it's far from over.
“We've got a long and painful healing process ahead,” acknowledged JPMorgan chief economist Bruce Kasman.
Growth this year in the United States, in particular, isn't yet robust enough to shorten the long unemployment lines or lower the jobless rate, he said.
At the same time, Mr. Kasman insisted that the latest employment figures don't mean the economy is backsliding into recession, but rather “plateauing” as economic growth resumes around the world. “Everybody went down hard together. Everybody got meaningfully large policy stimulus, and everybody now is moving up,” Mr. Kasman said.
In Canada, employers shed 2,600 jobs in December, after creating positions in three out of the four past months.
The Canadian job losses suggest a sustained rebound in the labour market will lag the broader economic recovery. The jobless rate remained at 8.5 per cent last month, Statistics Canada said.
The U.S. economy lost 85,000 jobs in December, and the unemployment rate remained stuck at a 26-year high of 10 per cent – largely because hundreds of thousands of Americans simply gave up trying to find work or were forced into part-time jobs, the U.S. Labour Department reported Friday. Europe's employment market is similarly stagnant.
The 16 countries that the use the euro as their currency shed 102,000 jobs in November, pushing the jobless rate to 10 per cent.
U.S. President Barack Obama said the country's latest numbers are a “reminder that the road to recovery is never straight.”
Hinting at eventual jobs growth, the U.S. did see an increase in hours worked, earnings and temporary employment in December.
The report, like the ones in Canada and Europe, was generally weaker than expected. And it underscores that while a recovery is under way, it's going to feel like a recession for many people for quite some time, holding back a consumer-led rebound and dissuading central bankers from raising rock-bottom interest rates any time soon.
The recovery is still elusive for Bryan Webb. The former sales manager from Vineland, Ont., has been searching for work ever since a layoff last April.
He'd like to find a job marketing technical products. No luck so far. Now, he's living off a line of credit, and reining in expenses as his employment insurance is set to run out.
“Employers are very, very cautious,” said Mr. Webb, who is in his fifties and has been part of the labour market for the past 35 years.
“They don't want to expand unless they absolutely have no choice.”
He's keeping busy, sitting on two local boards, managing a blog and volunteering with Happen, an organization that helps Toronto and Vancouver professionals find jobs.
“By March, I hope to be back working and contributing and feeling needed. That's the hardest part – you're sitting there and say, ‘no one wants me.'”
The Canadian report did include some encouraging signs. People are working more hours, and the private sector added jobs last month.
“There seems to be some light at the end of the tunnel – though I wouldn't say we're out of the tunnel yet,” said Gabriel Bouchard, president of Workopolis, which is Canada's largest online job board.
Hiring tends to lag a broader recovery by six to nine months, and this time is no exception, Mr. Bouchard said. Postings this year were much stronger than last December, though.
He's seeing a pickup in hiring in natural resources in Western Canada, and in the technology along with food and hospitality sectors. Postings are up the most in Saskatchewan and Quebec compared with last December.
Confidence needs to grow before hiring pops back, he said.
“Based on my 15 years of observations of the job posting industry, the first thing that's needed is the level of confidence, and that will have an impact on how quickly companies will reinvest and how they prepare their budgets,” Mr. Bouchard said.
In many cases, employers started budgeting their staff needs for the current fiscal year in the fall, when many economic indicators were still on shaky ground, he noted.
But that's likely to change this year, and many employers are starting the year with expansion plans after a lengthy period of hiring freezes or layoffs.
UBS Canada, for example, aims to hire nearly 20 people this year.
Part of that is rebuilding after job losses in its equities division and part is expansion to meet rising demand.
“Looking at where we believe demand will be over the next period of time, we can see holes. We can see more demand than our supply has here, so we're going to fill those holes,” said Paul Knight, chairman and chief executive officer.
All jobs are permanent and full-time, and he would hire more if the bank found appropriate candidates.
“We wouldn't be hiring unless we think it's sustainable. We're not a hiring and firing operation. But business activity in Canada is pretty healthy.”
The Swiss-based global bank is also hiring in countries around the world as the recovery takes root, he said.
