Hanging off lampposts, waving flags, lighting flares and cheering wildly, tens of thousands of supporters of François Hollande crammed into the Place de la Bastille in Paris at midnight a year ago to greet France’s first socialist president in almost two decades.
“I will live up to your hopes,” he promised the exuberant crowd.
How things have changed in the space of a year.
Waiting at the Bastille in a milling throng of trade unionists for the start of the traditional May Day workers’ parade, Emmanuelle, a civil servant who declines to give her family name, recalls the victory scenes with a resigned sigh.
“I was here that night,” she says. “There was an atmosphere of great hope. Now we are all very disappointed. All the promises – especially to stop companies laying off workers – have not been met.”
Amadou Diop, a student, echoes the sentiment. “I am very disappointed. His social record is bad. He hasn’t stopped the job losses. There is a feeling that the country is plunging into decline and there is a lack of hope.”
Problems have only mounted for Mr. Hollande since he took power last May from Nicolas Sarkozy.
The economy has shuddered to a halt. Unemployment has climbed above 10 per cent of the work force; the government has delayed hitting its targets for reducing the budget deficit and public debt; and the country continues to suffer from a worrying loss of international competitiveness, with the trade deficit standing above €60-billion ($78.7-billion U.S.), in sobering contrast to Germany’s hefty surplus.
There is restiveness within Socialist ranks over plans to cut spending, which has flared into attacks on German Chancellor Angela Merkel – seen as the author of austerity. This has undermined France’s position as Europe’s second-biggest power and traditional joint driver of the EU as the euro zone struggles to shake off years of economic crisis.
“The loss of competitiveness and the drift in the public finances are dangerous, not just for the outlook for France but for relations with Germany,” says Eric Chaney, chief economist at Axa, the insurer. “Germany needs a trusted ally and France is less qualified with a weak economy and public finances.”
Mr. Hollande has marked his anniversary by insisting that he remains committed to pulling the public finances back into shape, reducing the bloated public sector and rejuvenating the economy. But his critics say he has wasted his first year with wrong-headed tax increases and a lack of bold reform. Looking isolated and unpopular, he faces a mighty task if he is to turn round the country’s prospects – and his own.
It is a task that many now doubt Mr. Hollande is up to, not least in the business community. In a recent waspish comment, Alain Minc, a prominent business consultant and adviser to Mr. Sarkozy, said Mr. Hollande would make “a fantastic social democratic prime minister of a Scandinavian country” but was not suited to being the “monarchical” president of France.
“He runs the country like he is general secretary of the Socialist party. It doesn’t work like that,” Mr. Minc said in an interview with Les Echos.
Never in France’s postwar history has a new president suffered such a precipitous decline in popularity and confidence. With support tumbling on his own Socialist side as well as to his right, Mr. Hollande’s approval rating has slid from more than 60 per cent in his early weeks to as low as 24 per cent today.
Beyond his personal lack of popularity, there is a broader “morosité” that seems to have infected the country. An Ifop poll last week found that 70 per cent of French believed a “social explosion” was possible in the coming months.
Further problems have been stirred into the pot. A damaging scandal broke in April when Jérôme Cahuzac, the budget minister, was revealed to have been using a secret Swiss bank account. An angry protest movement also continues to fight the president’s law to allow gay marriage.
But Mr. Hollande appears remarkably sanguine. Visitors to the Elysée Palace say he has lost none of his trademark amiability, greeting guests with a friendly handshake and cracking jokes.
Some believed that when he ordered French troops into Mali in January for an operation to oust Islamist militants threatening to over-run the country, it presaged a new, more forceful Mr. Hollande. But the Elysée resists suggestions that France requires Churchillian leadership, saying promises of a hard slog leading to ultimate victory would not be accepted as credible.
Pleading that it is hard to address the joint problems of competitiveness and public finances when there is no growth, Mr. Hollande tells visitors that he must be given time to reform “carefully at a good rhythm.” To go faster would split his fractious Socialist party and its leftist allies, fuel opposition on the far right, push up unemployment in the short term and risk provoking protests in the street.