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opinion

Lawrence Stevenson is managing director at Callisto Capital.

There is a Cypriot proverb that says: "A fool throws a stone into the sea and all the wise men cannot get it out again." Fourteen years ago, I wrote in my thesis at the Sorbonne that the European Union had thrown several stones in the sea over the years in the process of mishandling the Cyprus file. The EU's strategy has kept the island divided and has hurt the West's relations with a key North Atlantic Treaty Organization ally, Turkey. But, for both Cyprus and Greece, the current financial crisis may provide an opportunity to retrieve those stones and calm the sea.

Canadians have a vested interest in seeing this situation resolved, given our financial and troop commitments to Cyprus. I was one of many Canadian soldiers who completed United Nations peacekeeping duties in Cyprus, doing two tours in the early 1980s. Many generations of Canadian soldiers proudly wear the UN's blue-and-white Cyprus peacekeeping medal.

Last year, the UN commemorated – I say commemorated, since celebrated is certainly not the appropriate term – its 50th year of peacekeeping in Cyprus. Over the past 20 years, the world body has spent more than $3-billion (U.S.) on Cyprus peacekeeping and it continues to spend more than $50-million each and every year. In large part, this money has been wasted.

Twenty years ago, the EU was the only player with the power to influence all four protagonists in this tragedy: Greece, Turkey and Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Both Cypriots and Turkey wanted to be invited into the EU and the EU had incentives it could offer to member Greece. Unfortunately, the EU did not use this power wisely. It made its first mistake in 1993, when the European Commission made a Cyprus settlement a necessary condition for EU membership. On the surface, this made sense, but given Greek Cypriots' desire to join the EU, this effectively gave the Turkish Cypriots a veto. Predictably, they dragged their heels and no agreement between the two parties was reached.

Given this Turkish Cypriot intransigence, the EU changed tack completely and, in doing so, made its second fundamental error. Just two years later, the EU asserted, and then made official in 2002, that the condition of a successful resolution to the conflict was being dropped. Thus, the Greek Cypriots could join the EU without a solution to a divided Cyprus and join even if the Turkish Cypriots were not in favour.

Now, the Greek Cypriots had all the power and no longer needed a deal. Predictably, again, no solution was acceptable to both sides. The UN presented both sides with the Annan Plan, which would have created a two-zone federation with a limited central government. But, since the Greek Cypriots no longer needed a deal to join the EU, the plan had no future. Despite being endorsed by the Turkish Cypriots in a referendum, 76 per cent of Greek Cypriots voted to reject the plan. Shortly after this, the Greek Cypriots joined the EU on their own. The EU should never have allowed this without their approval of the Annan Plan.

The current financial crisis, combined with the potential of significant wealth from natural gas, provides a superb opportunity for the EU to take a mulligan. Greece needs a debt deal, and both it and Cyprus need continuing EU support to repair their severely damaged economies. Turkey, Greek Cypriots and Turkish Cypriots all want to share in the enormous wealth that will be created by the Aphrodite field and its seven trillion cubic feet of gas, which lie off the island's southern coast. The best distribution solution involves a pipeline to Turkey, which would save about $15-billion compared with the alternatives.

Turkey still wants to be in the EU, even after the frustrations from two generations' worth of failed attempts to join. Despite the reservations of both France and Germany, the EU should move quickly to admit Turkey as a full member.

This would get Turkey onside and force the country to get the Turkish Cypriots onside as well. In the 27 years since Turkey formally applied for EU membership, nearly two dozen other members have joined. It's time to admit Turkey, with its thriving economy, into the club.

The EU has leverage over both Greece and the Greek Cypriots, since they both need the EU to bail out their economies. The EU should mandate Greek and Cypriot support for the Annan Plan as a precondition for continued financial support. Clearly, there has never been a better time for the EU to use its leverage with all the players to drive home a fair and balanced solution.

The current President of Cyprus, Nicos Anastasiades, is one of the few Greek Cypriot political leaders to have voted for the Annan Plan. And a couple of months ago, in the best news to come out of Cyprus for years, Turkish Cypriots voted for Mustafa Akinci to replace the hawkish former president of Northern Cyprus, Dervis Eroglu. For the first time in decades, the leaders on both sides of the divide are pro-peace. A few weeks ago, Mr. Anastasiades and Mr. Akinci walked together in Nicosia and shared a coffee in a meeting welcomed by both Cypriot communities.

The EU could bring an end to a 50-year peacekeeping mission and also support Turkey, our NATO ally. Turkey has a vital role model in the Muslim world as a secular democratic republic with a vibrant economy. It plays a critical role in Iraq and Syria, and represents a powerful and peaceful alternative to some of the fundamentalist tendencies that are growing in many parts of the Middle East.

Cyprus, many have said, "never misses an opportunity to miss an opportunity." I would hope that the EU and the leaders of Turkey, Greek Cyprus and Turkish Cyprus would help Cyprus to prove this saying wrong.

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