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According to the doomsayers, Friday’s report on domestic GDP will be the high water mark, before the Canadian economy begins a prolonged slide into slow-growth misery.

The consensus estimate for fourth quarter economic growth is 2.5 per cent on an annualized basis. Forecasters then expect the economy to slow to 2.1 per cent and 2.2 per cent for the first two quarters of 2014.

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Canada GDP vs Shipment/Inventory

SOURCE: Scott Barlow/Bloomberg

Canada GDP vs U.S. Leading Economic Indicator index

GDP: year-over-year per cent change

SOURCE: Scott Barlow/Bloomberg

Canada GDP vs Manufacturing hours worked

GDP: year-over-year per cent change

SOURCE: Scott Barlow/Bloomberg

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