These are stories Report on Business is following Monday, June 3, 2013.
Rosenberg on Canada
David Rosenberg has been warning ‘short-Canada’ investors that they could get burned.
And today, the chief economist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates cites Canada’s first-quarter showing as evidence.
Mr. Rosenberg, who has singing the praises of Canada and its loonie for at least a couple of months, was highlighting the fact that the economy expanded at an annual pace of 2.5 per cent in the first three months of the year, which was better than expected.
Not only that but Statistics Canada revised its fourth-quarter measure of gross domestic product to an annualized growth rate of 0.9 per cent, still lame but better than the initial reading of just 0.6 per cent.
Here’s what Mr. Rosenberg told Gluskin Sheff clients in his morning note:
“Well, well. For all the talk of how the Canadian dollar, the Canadian banks and the Canadian economy are all such great shorting opportunities, real GDP growth exceeded consensus views in Q1 with a +2.5-per-cent annualized growth rate. The market was braced for +2.2 per cent and this also eked out the +2.4-per-cent pace stateside and, in fact, Canada has now quietly outpaced the USA in three of the past four quarters!”
Add to that the fact that Canada’s economy did that “without nearly as much government support for the housing sector or expansion of the central bank balance sheet.”
In fact, the government has been successful in taming the housing market to prevent a bubble.
“Not to mention that the personal savings rate in Canada at 5 per cent is now double the 2.5-per cent level in the United States, so there would seem to be more potential for spending growth north of the border,” Mr. Rosenberg added, projecting that economic growth in the second quarter should be at least 2 per cent.
Mr. Rosenberg is taking on investors who are shorting Canadian assets, or at least bad-mouthing them, believing, among other things, that the cooling of the real estate market could hurt the country’s banks.
Speculative short positions against the loonie, as the dollar coin is known in Canada, have declined from elevated levels of a few months ago.
Mr. Rosenberg is not alone here.
Last month, for example, BMO Nesbitt Burns also advised foreign investors to abandon “The Great White Short.”
- Bears should abandon 'the Great White Short'
- Why is the man who bet against U.S. housing so worried about Canada?
- 'I wish them bad luck,' Jim Flaherty says of those shorting Canada
- Ten reasons we're not losers (despite what 'short-Canada' crowd says
- 49.23 shades of grey: Is the Canadian dollar poised for parity or a 10-cent plunge?
- David Rosenberg gives clients the 'real' story on the Canadian dollar
- Kevin Carmichael in Economy Lab: Loonie's strength will be Stephen Poloz's first dilemma
- Meet the man who’s selling Canada short
- Sean Silcoff in ROB Insight (for subscribers): A bet against Canada is not so far-fetched
CRTC unveils new code
Canada’s telecom regulator has unveiled a new wireless code of conduct that will ease one of the biggest irritants for cellphone users.
The Canadian Radio-television and Telecommunications Commission will allow Canadians to cancel their contracts after two years and pay no cancellation fees, no matter than they may have signed up for longer, The Globe and Mail’s Rita Trichur reports.
There are other measures, as well, including a ceiling on the cost of data and overage and data roaming. The new rules take effect in early December.
“The wireless code will contribute to a more dynamic marketplace by making it possible for Canadians to discuss their needs with service providers at least every two years,” said Jean-Pierre Blais, the chairman of the broadcast and telecom agency.
- CRTC's new wireless code spells end of three-year contracts
- Canadians would be willing to pay more for cellular services, study says
- Helping low-income youth, families catch the Net
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s honeymoon may well be over.
Japanese stocks, which have been in turmoil over the past couple of weeks, plunged again today and questions are being raised over so-called Abenomics, the aggressive economic and monetary policy program launched by the new prime minister and his new governor at the Bank of Japan, Haruhiko Kuroda. The Nikkei has now tumbled more than 15 per cent from its peak.
“One driver of the nearly two-week slide in the Nikkei has been erratic communication from the BoJ as Governor Kuroda appears to be facing internal dissent while several BoJ officials have expressed doubt that the revised 2-per-cent inflation target will ever be met,” said Derek Holt, vice-president of economics at Bank of Nova Scotia.
“Even Kuroda has been vague on lining up a timeline with expectations of hitting his doubled inflation target,” Mr. Holt said today.
“Profit-taking after an enormous rally since last fall could be another sensible reason. More fundamentally, we’re sticking to our view that Abenomics is on shaky foundations and markets are coming around to this view.”
Japan, of course, is struggling to get out of a protracted period of deflation, though fresh numbers Friday showed it inching ever closer to that goal. And, of course, it will take time for Abenomics to filter through.
Mr. Holt, however, also cited the fact that Japan’s corporate sector doesn’t appear to be following through.
“In another blow to Abenomics, Japanese companies are still not heeding the political plea to raise their capital spending,” Mr. Holt said, noting that a new reading today showed a spending drop of 3.9 per cent in the first quarter.
“In fairness, cap-ex decisions can be rather long-tailed, such that hoping for such an immediate swing in capital spending in response to Abenomics was a tad unrealistic to begin with,” he said.
“I don’t, however, have a good explanation as to why momentum was lost the minute Abenomics started to get priced in,” he added, though it would seem that the new policies haven’t boosted confidence among Japan’s companies.
Suitors eye Iron Ore
A huge commodities player and a private equity group are among potential buyers eyeing Rio Tinto PLC’s stake in Iron Ore Co. of Canada, The Wall Street Journal reports.
The recently merged Glencore Xstrata PLC and Blackstone Group LP are among others that have also been studying an offer the 58.7-per-cent interest said to be worth some $4-billion (U.S.).
Mitsubishi Corp. holds 26.2 per cent of the company, and Labrador Iron Ore Royalty Income Corp. 15.1 per cent.
The Globe and Mail reported in early March that Rio Tinto had put the stake on the auction block, part of widespread assets to deal with the huge debt from acquiring Alcan in 2007.
- Rio Tinto draws up shortlist for Canada iron ore sale
- Dented by aluminum, Rio Tinto aims to unload Iron Ore. Co.
Antitrust watchdog pushes ahead
Canada’s Competition Bureau says it’s now in a position to forge ahead with its probe into the setting of key interest rates after Royal Bank of Scotland abandoned its legal attempt to hold back documents.
RBS had been challenging an Ontario Superior Court of Justice order from mid-2011 to produce bank records, arguing, among other things, that the judgment breached the Charter of Rights and Freedoms.
The order involved not only RBS, but others that are part of the probe, as well, and demanded documents from outside the country.
No allegations have been proven.
The Canadian arm of RBS has now given up its challenge, the Competition Bureau said on its website.
“The abandonment comes approximately 18 months after the launch of the challenge and will allow the bureau to move forward with its investigation of alleged collusive conduct into the setting of yen Libor rates,” the antitrust watchdog said in its Friday statement.
“With the abandonment of its challenge RBS Canada is now required to comply with the order issued against it by June 28, 2013,” it added, warning it could still take further action on the delay.
“The bureau is considering its options for recuperating the costs arising from the resources expended to respond to RBS Canada’s now abandoned challenge.”
This is part of an ongoing tussle between the Competition Bureau and RBS, and part of a broader, global probe into the setting of key interest rates.
Last November, for example, the Canadian agency took on the bank over statements in connection with its third-quarter financials, where it says is was co-operating with the various investigations.
“The suggestion that the RBS Group is ‘co-operating fully’ with the bureau is false,” it said at the time.
“The RBS Group has not applied to the bureau’s immunity or leniency programs and, in fact, has challenged a production order issued by the Ontario Superior Court of Justice in relation to the bureau’s investigation.”
RBS, which last week appointed a former official of Britain’s Financial Services Authority to oversee its conduct and compliance, said today it’s not commenting on the Competition Bureau statement, though a spokesman for the bank did tell Reuters is co-operating with the agency.
- Competition Bureau disputes RBS statement on Libor
- Canada assailed for 'invasion' in Libor probe
- Canada launches lending-rate review after Libor scandal
- Libor rate-rigging probe looks into impact on Canadian bond market
Streetwise (for subscribers)
ROB Insight (for subscribers)
- Ericsson plans new Montreal-are R&D centre for global market
- Euro zone factory slump eases, Asia's momentum slides
- IATA boosts airlines' profit forecast despite challenges